Three weeks until Election Day in the U.S. of A. >>> Predictions please?
Posted on: October 14, 2008 - 3:07pm
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Three weeks until Election Day in the U.S. of A. >>> Predictions please?
Election day is three weeks away and although a new CNN poll showed the majority of Americans are ready for it to be over and done, I am exceedingly curious as to the opinions of the RRS members, not just the Americans, but everyone here.
So... who wins the White House? Not necessarily who you would like to see win the Presidency or who you intend to vote for, just who do you think will win ? Elaborate and discuss if you would please.
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At this point, Obama and his supporters are their own worst enemy. He probably lost a point or 2 by letting it slip out that he's for "spreading the wealth around". The Obama kids need to stop singing about him being the political messiah. His supporters are probably going to start talking about what their going to do with all the money they get from filthy rich capitalist pigs next year, this will cost him more points.
The polls could be off. Gore was up by the same margin in 2000. If McCain wins by a squeaker, we will have mass riots throughout the country so hunker down just in case.
Taxation is the price we pay for failing to build a civilized society. The higher the tax level, the greater the failure. A centrally planned totalitarian state represents a complete defeat for the civilized world, while a totally voluntary society represents its ultimate success. --Mark Skousen
I think Obama will win and we'll finally be rid of the extreme right in the executive branch. The economic crisis makes things much worse for McInsane and the Ayatollah of Alaska. He's way ahead in all the blue and nearly all the purple states. He's even slightly ahead in some states that haven't voted Rethuglican in decades. Obviously he won't win the backwards-ass states like Texas or Kansas, but there's a very strong chance he'll win. I heard a political commentator say about the only way he could lose now is to go onsatge and say "You know those rumors of me being a secret moslem and terrorist supporter? Well, they're true. " I'd personally like to see a president that made Ralph Nader look like Rush Limbaugh, but out off all the candidates in the major parties, Obama was best by far with Hillary Clinton second.
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I believe Obama will win in a landslide. Although the typically-conservative states strongly support McCain (what the fuck's up with Utah? 63.9% McCain, 29.6% Obama?), Obama is going to win the bigger states. Florida is becoming a strong Obama state, for example. Ohio has a fairly strong Obama majority, too.
Right now, Obama has over twice the electoral votes as McCain, if the election could be called by the current polls. McCain is going to get his ass handed to him.
Yes, this seems like optimism on my part, but I think it's inevitable. Too many Republicans do not like Sarah Palin as VP, for one thing. Another, McCain doesn't inspire.
Anyway, I figure Obama will get at least 300 electoral votes. I'm hoping for at least 350 electoral votes, so we can officially call it a rout.
"Yes, I seriously believe that consciousness is a product of a natural process. I find that the neuroscientists, psychologists, and philosophers who proceed from that premise are the ones who are actually making useful contributions to our understanding of the mind." - PZ Myers
Yeah, Utah is a very backwards assed state. I agree with Joe Hill - I wouldn't want to be caught dead in the land of no beer and magical underwear.
Matt Shizzle has been banned from the Rational Response Squad website. This event shall provide an atmosphere more conducive to social growth. - Majority of the mod team
Here are a few real electoral college "butt-kickings" in U.S. Presidential race history...
1972: (R) Nixon/Agnew thump the tandem of (D)McGovern/Shriver, who only manage to win in Massachusetts and D.C. 520-17 ouch!
1980: (R) Actor turned Governor Ronald Reagan picks George Bush and they pound (D) Carter/Mondale 489-49. Jimmy and Walt do manage to win their home states, Ga and Mn, but that's about it.
1984: IMHO, the goofiest move EVER by the Democrats who choose former VP Mondale to be their candidate, even after he and J.C. had their asses handed to them 4 years earlier. Mondale tabs Geraldine Ferraro as his running mate and they are spanked thoroughly, 525-13, as they only win Mondale's home state of Mn and the District of Columbia.
1988: On the heels of winning twice with Reagan, the first George Bush selects J. Danforth Quayle of Indiana as his VP. The Dems select Mr. Blinky, also known as Michael Dukakis and he chooses Senator Lloyd Bentsen as his running mate. Dukakis/Bentsen carry New York but are still trounced 426-111.
1992: Clinton/Gore handily win over Bush/Quayle with the incumbent team claiming wins in Texas and Florida while all the other states with "large electoral votes" go for the Arkansas governor. 370-168
1996: Bill Clinton and Al Gore once again cream the Republicans, this time beating the team of Bob Dole and Jack Kemp 379/159.
Oh and the year 2000 ??? It's still too close to call.
If the polls stay as they are right now, I think it will be close, but Obama/Biden will win. If the polls start to narrow between the two, I'd have to give it to McSame. Just like in 2000, if the Democrats don't win it by a signifcant margin, the Rethuglicans will find a way to steal it fom them.
WWSD - What Would Scooby Doo?
Duh. It occurred to me that I hadn't made a forecast...
Out of the 6 so called "toss-up" states that remain I am certain McCain/Palin will win in both Indiana and North Carolina while Obama/Biden take the other four including a fairly close final in Ohio and Missouri.
There are two states that I think will change by the time we get to voting day. Right now the experts and many polls have Obama barely taking the 13 electoral votes of Virginia. I don't see it. Even when the U.S. economy was booming, they went against Clinton/Gore, twice.
The other state may go the other direction.... North Dakota has only three measly votes and as of today the pundits have McCain slightly ahead, but I think it will go Obama.
So anyway, and I wouldn't have thought this as recently as two weeks ago, Obama wins the popular vote by well over a million and takes the electoral 344-194.
But of course, a lot of things could happen, in three weeks time.
Looking at the electoral map Obama will win in a landslide.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
In states where Bush whupped Kerry Obama is now ahead. North Dakota, West Virginia, Virginia, etc.
McCain is desperate and in this time when he is losing badly he is pulling out his best argument to defeat Obama. That strong argument is apparently that Obama was a member of the Weather Underground when he was 8. No surprise this pathetic attack isn't working. Meanwhile Obama is sticking to issues like the economy which is more important to people than something Obama didn't do when he was a kid.
Sure something could happen in the next few weeks but it's highly unlikely. The Republicans are pulling out things like Obama is a Muslim, he's an Arab, he's a terrorist and that he was born in Kenya. I'm supposing the McCain campaign figured Americans are dumb enough to fall for those weak lies. Eight years of Bush must have sobered up a lot of people.
The only way McCain can win is the same way Bush won two elections, massive election fraud.
And here's a somewhat different electoral map....
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/
and from New York Times....
http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/president/whos-ahead/key-states/map.html
Another question.... Will McCain get another "boost" from Palin's planned appearance on SNL with Tina Fey ?
Don't be so certain on Indiana. The Elephants are worried enough about a state that hasnt voted for a Dem since 1964, I believe, that they've spent quite a bit of money and resources there lately.
My prediction is that Obama will win, but that it will be closer than people think. I will not underestimate stupid people's inability to see past skin color or unique names.
"The powerful have always created false images of the weak."
Obama. I don't want to go into it while using a PS3 paddle though.
Enlightened Atheist, Gaming God.
Obama over McCain 441-97
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I'm writing in George W. Bush for a 3rd term.
Dude had some good points, that's all I'm saying.
What good points unless you consider that WWIII didn't occur is enough of a good point?
Following American politics is a lot like watching the Grand Ole Opry.
Really jmm ? (heheh) I thought it were more like watchin' a movie.
Hence the popcorn.
Hey, is that Ronnie Raygun up on the screen!
My home state (Kansas) is still red in your map, darth_josh.
But I'll keep hoping to see it turn blue just once.
It'll never happen, of course, (...and heads would roll at the RNC if it ever did...)
but it's still a nice thought to think about.
Conor
Don't feel bad, Conor.
Indiana is only blue on my map because I know the 750,000 new voters are from the larger cities.
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My predictions >.>
McCain wins, i will be found dead in Washington, in a botched assassination attempt...
Obama wins, i will be found dead in Washington, due to alcohol poisoning...
... Looks like a Win-Win for me
What Would Kharn Do?
We already have enough nuts making comments on the right making comments about Obama being a terrorist supporter, we don't need to fuel those nuts with bad jokes like this.
How about this, the winner's supporters, whomever wins, will be happy and the loser's supporters will be angrey.
"We are a nation of Christians and Muslims, Jews and Hindus -- and nonbelievers."Obama
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Actually, I took Doomed Soul's post as that he would drink until death in celebration.
Facetiously metaphorical drinking until death.
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From:
http://www.intrade.com/
People who think there is something they refer to as god don't ask enough questions.
The battleground state predictions:
Ohio - Obama
Virginia - Obama
North Caronlina - Obama
Florida - Obama
Indiana - McCain
Nevada - Obama
Missouri - Obama
W. Virginia - McCain
Obama wins. AZ retains its' senator but loses a governor to the new cabinet. She will be replaced by a republican.
god -- I tried you on for size.... you were a little long in the crotch, loose in the waist, short in the length and you made my butt look extra flat. I had to take you back for an exchange.
I think Obama will win, but I wouldn't count out the Republicans. They got away with rigging the vote in 2000 and 2004, so are pushing even harder now. This election is not as close, but they have gotten really good at attacking the actual counting of ballots and purging of voters from voter rolls.
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/story/23638322/block_the_vote
"Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything." - Stalin
"I am that I am." - Proof that the writers of the bible were beyond stoned.
Call me a tinfoil hatter if you have to, but I genuinely believe the Rethugs are capable of cheating their way into this election. The media's already been preparing us for it, suggesting that there are conceivable possibiilities for a tie in the electoral college, and the potential ways that congressmen could be pressured to side with McCain.
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