Pete Carrol was right.
Offline The Seahawks had three down to score, but only one timeout.
If they ran the ball and did not score, they had to call timeout to get another play off, and that play would have to be a pass(and the defence knows this) because if they ran it a second time and did not score they would have would not have time to run a 4th down play. So by throwing, he gave his team 3 chances to score if there was no turnovers(a rare occuance).
The critics are idiots because they don't understand that play calling is not just one play. You run Lynch on 3rd and 4th down. One of the first 2 tries had to be a pass.
Because it did not work out is not proof that he did not choose wisely. Seattle's players didn't execute on the play and the patriots did. The critisism just show's America's ignorance of statistics even by the football 'experts'.
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You make a really good argument! With that said, I would've either run Marshawn or used Marshawn as a decoy to give it to Turbin or Michael.
They wasted time outs at 1:50 and 1:06. They should've had 3 or at least two because the one at 1:06 came as a result of a big play that they had problems getting the team set at the 5. Seattle needed that series to end with no time on the clock, another reason I don't sign off on the pass play... it would've left 20 seconds on the clock. I think you are at the 5 yard line with 1:06 you prepare to run Marshawn Lynch 3 times in a row.
Marshawn had the ball at the 1 with 26 seconds left, it would've taken 6 seconds to complete the play before using the timeout. If a last play is needed you can put in 4-5 wr's and spread everyone. If the play breaks down, Wilson can either throw it away or run it in himself.
But I'll give you this... you make a good argument.
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There was a NFL combined total of @106 passes attempted from the one-yard line this season/postseason. More than 50% (56) resulted in TDs and all the rest — except for Wilson's INT in last night's Super Bowl — fell incomplete. Also, on rushing attempts from the one-yard line, Marshawn Lynch was 1-5 for the season.
Another thing to consider.
If they ran the ball there was still a good chance of a fumble given that was what the patriots would be trying like hell to do. In a goal line situation like that, one missed block wouild be disaster.
Also, they could lose yardage on a run and then it would be very difficult to run it in on 3rd or 4th down. An incomplete pass does no damage.
The mistake he made was not to pass, but to put in pass play the pats know was be coming.
How is it that Carroll is an idiot for calling a pass, but Bellichick is a genius for knowing a pass was coming? A lot of poker playing was going on there, the Pats had personnel to defend the run but were actually defending the pass.
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Great post, funny those stats can be viewed 2 ways. One way is you're absolutely right, the other way Marshawn was due to jump one in and a QB was due to throw an int.
I think Butler deserves lots of credit for knowing to jump the route. Bellicheck doesn't deserve responsibility for that. I don't know if he even knew a pass was coming. His after game quote was "Seattle does a lot of different things at the goal line, they had to be ready for anything."
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I've wondered, even though I didn't watch this game, if a flea-flicker would have worked in this situation. Not a deep pass. Rather draw in the defenders to a run up the middle and have a CB release the WR on the right or left. The RB flicks the ball back and a quick toss to the side gets a quick six.
On the other side of things, as Brian said, the defense knew Carroll. They knew he would take the most chances to get in, so they knew he would pass and not run.
It might have been a case of "I know that they know that I know that they know what I am thinking, so I need to do what the opposite of what they know".
A trick play is high risk, high reward stategy. Not something the Seahawks needed to do at that point. There is a high probability of turnover or loss.
The problem was that play was too predicatable. They ran it before so the Patriots new it may be coming again and were ready. It's just like poker played at a high level, the only mistake you can make is being too predicatable. Perhaps they could have run a pass play with less risk of turnover as well.
The goal of a football coach is not so much to win the games, but to not get fired. To not be blamed for a loss. As such, most all coaches are more conservative than rational logic would dictate. If he ran the ball and the runner fumbled, the coach would not be blamed, just the player.
At least give Carroll credit for not worrying about taking the blame.
The reason I post this here is because we see how irration thought works. A rare event happens, so it must be supernatural, a conspiracy or the coach is a complete idiot.
http://www.breitbart.com/sports/2015/02/03/conspiracy-theorist-pete-carroll-now-subject-of-sb-conspiracy-theories/
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I believe all the conspiracy theory people are nuts. I've seen some really whacked out shit on the web the last twenty four hours. It's just a fucking game. If the Patriots lose you'd see shit like "they didn't want Brady to win" or "this way pay back for Belechick". I can understand some one getting caught taking PEDs, coaches cheating, QB's getting an edge, but to have a conspiracy of this proportion you'd need a lot of people to be cheating. This isn't Ocean's Eleven.
Monday morning coaching is the easiest job in the NFL, obviously it was a bad choice because it resulted in the worst possible outcome. I put more of the blame on Wilson, he should have had the situational awareness to know that you only throw if the receiver is wide open and that throwing it away is ok because you have two more downs to work with. There was no need to force it, and he tried to force it. But then, Monday morning quarterbacking is a lot easier than being a quarterback too.
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Ah. I didn't know they had two more downs. I agree with your assessment. If you have time and two more downs, why not throw it away just in case.
I like the QB's who can throw those corner routes with the lightest touch. If you can get it over the defender then the receiver can catch it out of bounds but slide their feet inbounds.
I don't think you can blame Wilson at all. The play is designed so he just throws it to a spot as fast as he can. He's not supposed to waist time deciding if the defender could get there.
The 2 receivers should get some of the blame. The other receiver was supposed to push his cover guy in Malcom Bulter' to slow him down from getting to ball. He didn't get it done. The intended receiver didn't get to the spot where the ball was to be thrown fast enough and use his body to sheid against the defender.
Sapient is right, the big mistake Seahawks made was burning their timeouts too soon, it took away the run option.
Taxation is the price we pay for failing to build a civilized society. The higher the tax level, the greater the failure. A centrally planned totalitarian state represents a complete defeat for the civilized world, while a totally voluntary society represents its ultimate success. --Mark Skousen