Probability that life arose by random chance.
By ruling out that the existence of a creator and thus intelligent design how do atheists reason with the probability that life arose from random chance?
My thoughts on the matter (with careful consideration I have left out of my base question): From everything I've ever read or heard on the subject the probabilities that life arose from random chance are so astronomical that they are hard to overlook. And the impression that I recieve is that if life is simple to create. And given the amount of simplicity people generally associate to life how can they overlook that life does not spontaneously generate. In my mind this analogous to taking all the parts,all the biological makeup, to make an animal, call it a dog, and waiting, given a infinitesmal amount of time and recieving a living dog. Of course with an infinite amount of time the probability that the dog would appear could theoretically happen with the chance being 1 correct assembly of the dog over the number of times that the dog is assembled inncorrectly. So given the probability exemplifyied in the dog we would say that it is more probable that the dog would be in disorder than order (following the 2nd law of thermodynamics). I was wondering how the atheist community reasons with this. Here's a link to a webpage for starters that I found to be unbiased and generally logical. Please feel free to respond as I'm willing to have any rational discussion on the topic.
http://www.charliewagner.net/hoyle.htm
Or for those who wish to look into an atheist turned theist on the matter Lee Strobel is a good place to start. His novel Case for A Creator is another good starting point if you haven't any.
- Login to post comments
I explained how your premise does not apply to science. Science does abandon ideas when they fail to work. Your argument fails to "dismantle" science.
You have failed to give any support for your claim that god explains anything. The statement "god did it" contains no more information than the statement "nothing did it." With "nothing," we have the universe being created by an unknown method. With "god" we have the universe being created by an unknown entity by an unkown method. "God" is simply not a viable explanation.
"At any given time, the most viable explanation for a given Q is to be preferred." Consider the two options that are in contention (feel free to add additional explanations if you know of any):
1. God did it.
2. There is a natrual, but as of yet unknown, cause.
The second option historically has always been the case and is supported by centuries of investigation into the natural world. Therefore it is clearly more viable, and by your own logic should be preferred.
I have read with interest the biological arguments from the expert(s) on here. All they amount to is some scientific god of the gaps.Really bad argument against god's existance.Yeah right you'll find the answer as to how life began.As if that would prove anything!What ? nature is God now? That is so laughable.Even if you found out whether some pre RNA or whatever did it you have to ask why the heck its there in the first place.nature is not all there is!There could be something more! Same old crap about not wanting there to be a God or even Judeo christian God-no way we couldnt have that now could we? You all upset now?. I dont call you fools but the scripture is clear-the fool in his heart says there is no God.
Science experts, I still dont see how you can argue from existing order back to a self replicating system of cells/proteins or whatever that came into existence by itself?Or maybe from another planet-yeah thatll do it.lol That puts the question back further-how the heck did the system arise and why is there at all?Metaphysical questions guys. Loads of genetic fallacies on here explaining how it might have happened.They are irrelevant.God's existence does not depend on them.Get it straight!
And...... science experts, you still did NOT explain how the first self replicating systems emerged.Yes you argue from order which is very slippery of you.What? the intrinsic order just existed?Or did it begin to exist?sorry ,i am not really educated to understand.
The great Catholic thinker, philosopher and theologian St. Thomas Aquinas summarized his cosmological argument in the Summa Theologia. In this theological masterpiece, St. Thomas writes five "ways" that we can know God exists. His first three ways deal with the cosmological argument:
Richard H, ThD, M.ed, Dip. Phil. et artibus, H.Dip in Ed.,H.dip in Appplied info tech.
I considered writing a point by point refutation to that wall of stupid posted by Richard Head (not verified), but decided that his lack of an account is indicative of a troll. Such comments like:
"I have read with interest the biological arguments from the expert(s) on here. All they amount to is some scientific god of the gaps."
And
"nature is not all there is!"
And
"Science experts, I still dont see how you can argue from existing order back to a self replicating system of cells/proteins or whatever that came into existence by itself?"
Are proofs of ignorance and failure to comprehend basic English. Total fail.
Enlightened Atheist, Gaming God.
Welcome to the forum, Richard Head.
Um, lol, God of the gaps can't be an argument against God. Theists put God into the gaps of knowledge left by science. That's why it's called God of the gaps.
It would show beyond a reasonable doubt that there is a precise natural explanation for the origin of life.
Obviously, but how do you know it's your God?
If that's what the evidence suggests, then sure.
No. You seem pretty bewildered and furious though.
Okay, dude.
I agree.
Actually, we've already worked out plausible processes by which this could have happened.
Define 'intrinsic order.'
Define 'faith.
Edit: I don't understand some of the abbreviations at the end of your post, but, so, you have college degrees? I would expect someone like you to at least be able to consistently construct grammatically correct sentences.
Our revels now are ended. These our actors, | As I foretold you, were all spirits, and | Are melted into air, into thin air; | And, like the baseless fabric of this vision, | The cloud-capped towers, the gorgeous palaces, | The solemn temples, the great globe itself, - Yea, all which it inherit, shall dissolve, | And, like this insubstantial pageant faded, | Leave not a rack behind. We are such stuff | As dreams are made on, and our little life | Is rounded with a sleep. - Shakespeare
Let's see. Theology department? Master's in education? Diploma in philosophy? Higher diploma in education? Higher diploma in applied information technology?
Sorry man, but I really really think that you're full of shit.
Our revels now are ended. These our actors, | As I foretold you, were all spirits, and | Are melted into air, into thin air; | And, like the baseless fabric of this vision, | The cloud-capped towers, the gorgeous palaces, | The solemn temples, the great globe itself, - Yea, all which it inherit, shall dissolve, | And, like this insubstantial pageant faded, | Leave not a rack behind. We are such stuff | As dreams are made on, and our little life | Is rounded with a sleep. - Shakespeare
NASA Reproduces A Building Block Of Life In Laboratory
ScienceDaily (Nov. 11, 2009) — NASA scientists studying the origin of life have reproduced uracil, a key component of our hereditary material, in the laboratory. They discovered that an ice sample containing pyrimidine exposed to ultraviolet radiation under space-like conditions produces this essential ingredient of life.
Pyrimidine is a ring-shaped molecule made up of carbon and nitrogen and is the basic structure for uracil, part of a genetic code found in ribonucleic acid (RNA). RNA is central to protein synthesis, but has many other roles.
"We have demonstrated for the first time that we can make uracil, a component of RNA, non-biologically in a laboratory under conditions found in space," said Michel Nuevo, research scientist at NASA's Ames Research Center, Moffett Field, Calif. "We are showing that these laboratory processes, which simulate occurrences in outer space, can make a fundamental building block used by living organisms on Earth."
Nuevo is the lead author of a new research paper in the journal Astrobiology.
NASA Ames scientists have been simulating the environments found in interstellar space and the outer solar system for years. During this time, they have studied a class of carbon-rich compounds, called polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), which have been identified in meteorites, and are the most common carbon-rich compound observed in the universe. PAHs typically are six-carbon ringed structures that resemble fused hexagons, or a piece of chicken wire.
Pyrimidine also is found in meteorites, although scientists still do not know its origin. It may be similar to the carbon-rich PAHs, in that it may be produced in the final outbursts of dying, giant red stars, or formed in dense clouds of interstellar gas and dust.
"Molecules like pyrimidine have nitrogen atoms in their ring structures, which makes them somewhat whimpy. As a less stable molecule, it is more susceptible to destruction by radiation, compared to its counterparts that don't have nitrogen," said Scott Sandford, a space science researcher at Ames. "We wanted to test whether pyrimidine can survive in space, and whether it can undergo reactions that turn it into more complicated organic species, such as the nucleobase uracil."
In theory, the researchers thought that if molecules of pyrimidine could survive long enough to migrate into interstellar dust clouds, they might be able to shield themselves from radiation destruction. Once in the clouds, most molecules freeze onto dust grains (much like moisture in your breath condenses on a cold window during winter).
These clouds are dense enough to screen out much of the surrounding outside radiation of space, thereby providing some protection to the molecules inside the clouds.
Scientists tested their hypotheses in the Ames Astrochemistry Laboratory. During their experiment, they exposed the ice sample containing pyrimidine to ultraviolet radiation under space-like conditions, including a very high vacuum, extremely low temperatures (approximately -- 340 degrees Fahrenheit), and harsh radiation.
They found that when pyrimidine is frozen in water ice, it is much less vulnerable to destruction by radiation. Instead of being destroyed, many of the molecules took on new forms, such as the RNA component uracil, which is found in the genetic make-up of all living organisms on Earth.
"We are trying to address the mechanisms in space that are forming these molecules. Considering what we produced in the laboratory, the chemistry of ice exposed to ultraviolet radiation may be an important linking step between what goes on in space and what fell to Earth early in its development," said Stefanie Milam, a researcher at NASA Ames and a co-author of the research paper.
"Nobody really understands how life got started on Earth. Our experiments demonstrate that once the Earth formed, many of the building blocks of life were likely present from the beginning. Since we are simulating universal astrophysical conditions, the same is likely wherever planets are formed," explained Sandford.
Additional team members who helped perform the research and co-author the paper are Jason Dworkin and Jamie Elsila, two NASA scientists at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md.
The research was funded by the NASA Astrobiology Institute (NAI) and the NASA Origins of Solar Systems Program. NAI is a virtual, distributed organization of competitively-selected teams that integrates and funds astrobiology research and training programs in concert with the national and international science communities.
"Experiments are the only means of knowledge at our disposal. The rest is poetry, imagination." Max Planck
What about life supposes that it is "random" and happened by "chance"?
Also, how does one detect probabilities of these sorts without question begging?
“Hokey religions and ancient weapons are no match for a good blaster at your side, kid.”
Did not say he had a definitive "I do not know" He suggested he had a possible explanations, which is all he needs to suggest that your explanation is not a necessity.
“Hokey religions and ancient weapons are no match for a good blaster at your side, kid.”
Since it now appears that there are likely to be billions of planets in the our own galaxy, and there are estimated to be more than 100 billion galaxies in the Universe, that means there could be 10^20 planets in the Universe, with a whole range of environments, due to random variations, even if the likelihood of a planet happening to have a suitable environment for self-replicating molecules to form is less than 1 chance in a billion billion, it is extremely likely for there to be many planets with life on them.
Add to this the latest experiments which show that the basic forms of simple self-replicating molecules, such as RNA, can form relatively easily in conditions likely to exist on a significant proportion of planets, then the more appropriate question would almost be 'why haven't we found them yet?". Although the sheer scale of the Universe makes it still fairly unlikely that advanced life would be close enough to detect or communicate with with anything like current technology.
None of those arguments for God hold up in the light of current knowledge of the nature of the Universe.
The fact that we see some signs of order or regularity in the universe, which is still dominated by random and chaotic phenomena is entirely unremarkable. It just emerges naturally under certain broad conditions, due to the fact that the fundamental particles are of a relatively small number of kinds, identical in attributes within each kind.
Think of the way a collection of billiard balls on a slight slope will tend to form neat regular hexagonal patterns, simply because they are all identical, and that pattern is the most compact way for identical spheres to pack together.
Just the start of a potentially very long discussion on how God is now more of a problem to fit into what we know than an explanation for anything. Our understanding of 'Life, the Universe, and Everything' has moved on a long way since the time of Aquinas - he really has nothing to tell us today.
Favorite oxymorons: Gospel Truth, Rational Supernaturalist, Business Ethics, Christian Morality
"Theology is now little more than a branch of human ignorance. Indeed, it is ignorance with wings." - Sam Harris
The path to Truth lies via careful study of reality, not the dreams of our fallible minds - me
From the sublime to the ridiculous: Science -> Philosophy -> Theology
"Abductive necessity" is simply nonsense.
The proper and honest response to the absence of any satisfactory current evidence-based explanation for something is "we don't know".
Whatever the merits of the 'best' of a bunch of inadequate current explanations for something, there is no logical justification for declaring it "necessary".
If it has some slight predictive merit, ie it does seem to model some aspect of reality, we can use it to reduce some uncertainty, but that doesn't justify giving it any more status than its actual degree of match to reality justifies.
Favorite oxymorons: Gospel Truth, Rational Supernaturalist, Business Ethics, Christian Morality
"Theology is now little more than a branch of human ignorance. Indeed, it is ignorance with wings." - Sam Harris
The path to Truth lies via careful study of reality, not the dreams of our fallible minds - me
From the sublime to the ridiculous: Science -> Philosophy -> Theology
Don't you just love it when they bring out the theology degrees, like it actually means something to have a degree in fantasy.
Who is to say God doesn't work in a "natural" framework? I love this argument because there is absolutely nothing atheists can say to it. Fact: You can never, under any circumstances, disprove the existence of God. Even if you "prove" your theories, you haven't proved that God was not involved. I think everyone on this site could benefit from an introductory course in the philosophy of science. You could give yourselves a chance to learn about the problem of induction. You guys should read some Hume.
You are aware of Russell's teapot, I presume?
So the inability to prove the non-existence of some form of God actually proves nothing about whether that particular idea deserves respect.
None of the 'traditional' so-called proofs of God amount to anything much, they certainly don't come close to proving the existence of a sentient universe creator, let alone anything matching any specific claimed religious conceptions of God, whether of the Abrahamic or any other kind.
So any known conception of God idea barely even qualifies as a hypothesis, let alone a theory.
The 'problem of induction' is based on a straw-man version of how the process of inductive reasoning, as actually applied, actually works. It does not lead to certain knowledge about the nature of the world, but it is not supposed to. It is about methodically refining our best estimates about what is most likely to be true, based on all available and relevant evidence. Bayes Theorem gives us an important method of making this process more rigorous.
The only certain knowledge is the deductive kind, which is of the sort that states that 'If A then B', which is about definitions and implications, and does not lead to knowledge about what actually exists, only what logically could possibly exist, or not, IF certain assumptions are true.
Any 'knowledge' based on intuition, faith, revelation, etc, has far more fundamental logical flaws than induction.
Favorite oxymorons: Gospel Truth, Rational Supernaturalist, Business Ethics, Christian Morality
"Theology is now little more than a branch of human ignorance. Indeed, it is ignorance with wings." - Sam Harris
The path to Truth lies via careful study of reality, not the dreams of our fallible minds - me
From the sublime to the ridiculous: Science -> Philosophy -> Theology
Who is to say the Flying Spaghetti Monster doesn't work in a "natural" framework? I love this argument because there is absolutely nothing atheists can say to it. Fact: you can never, under any circumstances, disprove the existence of the Flying Spaghetti Monster. Even if you "prove" your theories, you haven't proven that the Flying Spaghetti Monster was not involved.
Random chance? Organic elements interacting in a electroconductive fluid medium is inherently random? I believe that at some point in natural history life became inevitable. This does NOT put intelligent design and/or a creative force somewhere in the picture, all sillyness aside, anyways
“A meritocratic society is one in which inequalities of wealth and social position solely reflect the unequal distribution of merit or skills amongst human beings, or are based upon factors beyond human control, for example luck or chance. Such a society is socially just because individuals are judged not by their gender, the colour of their skin or their religion, but according to their talents and willingness to work, or on what Martin Luther King called 'the content of their character'. By extension, social equality is unjust because it treats unequal individuals equally.” "Political Ideologies" by Andrew Heywood (2003)
Regarding the 'problem of induction', the standard example of 'all swans are white ' is itself a caricature of a serious empirical argument.
To be more realistic, it should include observations on related categories, such as how much, if any, variation in color is observed within other bird species, or within sets of closely related or otherwise very similar creatures.
Otherwise the conclusion amounts to the truism that 'all white swans are white'.
Philosophy is at least as likely to lead to error as truth. I used to be 'in to' philosophy, but have become progressively disenchanted the more I got to hear the nonsense that even 'famous' philosophers could come up with.
It is true that the more respectable and useful parts of philosophy are on the fringes of empirical disciplines, such as the philosophy of science, when used to extend speculation into regions beyond established areas of knowledge, and to comment on the methodology employed. The link to an actual field of research helps to keep the philosophy from going completely off into fantasy.
Moral philosophy also has value in what is inherently a subjective field.
EDIT: I have read Hume. I like him.
Favorite oxymorons: Gospel Truth, Rational Supernaturalist, Business Ethics, Christian Morality
"Theology is now little more than a branch of human ignorance. Indeed, it is ignorance with wings." - Sam Harris
The path to Truth lies via careful study of reality, not the dreams of our fallible minds - me
From the sublime to the ridiculous: Science -> Philosophy -> Theology
You should read Robert T. Pennock.
-- I feel so much better since I stopped trying to believe.
"We are entitled to our own opinions. We're not entitled to our own facts"- Al Franken
"If death isn't sweet oblivion, I will be severely disappointed" - Ruth M.
Welcome to your future.
Bob Spence...
...does not like a low signal:noise ratio.
“A meritocratic society is one in which inequalities of wealth and social position solely reflect the unequal distribution of merit or skills amongst human beings, or are based upon factors beyond human control, for example luck or chance. Such a society is socially just because individuals are judged not by their gender, the colour of their skin or their religion, but according to their talents and willingness to work, or on what Martin Luther King called 'the content of their character'. By extension, social equality is unjust because it treats unequal individuals equally.” "Political Ideologies" by Andrew Heywood (2003)
Bayesian logic has no "refining" powers of induction. I think your knowledge of A (BL) is not an answer to B (your being bound to induction). I think this is the problem with most natural isolated frameworks. Recognition of your inductive behaviors and the subsequent dismissal because you have somehow evolved past its parameters is problematic. You make choices in the deductive world, but those are unrelated to your inductive behaviors--you've conflated the two.
Your statement about faith, revelation etc. and induction is begging. They are the same, exactly. Your induction has no validity any more than mine. You just apply deductive principles to justify your inductive behavior (which is the real straw person).
"All men are mortal" as P1. When this was written, it was an inductive conclusion to demonstrate a deductive syllogism (no data, only experience).
I do agree that Phil guy needs to do some more work.
"So we'll integrate non-progressional evolution theory with God's creation of Eden. Eleven inherent metaphoric parallels already there. Eleven. Important number. Prime number. One goes into the house of eleven eleven times, but always comes out one. Noah's ark is a problem." River
“A meritocratic society is one in which inequalities of wealth and social position solely reflect the unequal distribution of merit or skills amongst human beings, or are based upon factors beyond human control, for example luck or chance. Such a society is socially just because individuals are judged not by their gender, the colour of their skin or their religion, but according to their talents and willingness to work, or on what Martin Luther King called 'the content of their character'. By extension, social equality is unjust because it treats unequal individuals equally.” "Political Ideologies" by Andrew Heywood (2003)
Yeah umm... I just wanted to steal some MSN smileys from RRS for windows live messenger; you may delete this now.
“A meritocratic society is one in which inequalities of wealth and social position solely reflect the unequal distribution of merit or skills amongst human beings, or are based upon factors beyond human control, for example luck or chance. Such a society is socially just because individuals are judged not by their gender, the colour of their skin or their religion, but according to their talents and willingness to work, or on what Martin Luther King called 'the content of their character'. By extension, social equality is unjust because it treats unequal individuals equally.” "Political Ideologies" by Andrew Heywood (2003)
Thank you, StDissonance, for demonstrating your complete misunderstanding of everything.
We need that to reassure us we are on the right track by showing us so clearly the confused nonsense that the alternative leads to.
Favorite oxymorons: Gospel Truth, Rational Supernaturalist, Business Ethics, Christian Morality
"Theology is now little more than a branch of human ignorance. Indeed, it is ignorance with wings." - Sam Harris
The path to Truth lies via careful study of reality, not the dreams of our fallible minds - me
From the sublime to the ridiculous: Science -> Philosophy -> Theology
Bayes' Theorem specifically provides a more rigorous way to calculate, from the estimates of likelihood, of confidence, of all the relevant input data, the implied likelihood of any specific conclusion based on that data, so it most definitely helps us to refine the justifiable confidence in any conclusion we draw based on that data. Which is important when deriving conclusions from significantly uncertain or 'fuzzy' data.
It is not an 'answer' to anything as such, it is a tool to make more accurate estimates of the implications of the uncertainty in any of the input data to a some specific analysis.
Favorite oxymorons: Gospel Truth, Rational Supernaturalist, Business Ethics, Christian Morality
"Theology is now little more than a branch of human ignorance. Indeed, it is ignorance with wings." - Sam Harris
The path to Truth lies via careful study of reality, not the dreams of our fallible minds - me
From the sublime to the ridiculous: Science -> Philosophy -> Theology
WOW....
... a guy on the internet starts talking about 'Logic' and ACTUALLY. MAKES. SENSE.
An interesting consequence of this is that I now believe in 'magic'.
DAMMIT, BOB SPENCE! See what you've done to me! You turned me into a believer (... of logic, that is. )
“A meritocratic society is one in which inequalities of wealth and social position solely reflect the unequal distribution of merit or skills amongst human beings, or are based upon factors beyond human control, for example luck or chance. Such a society is socially just because individuals are judged not by their gender, the colour of their skin or their religion, but according to their talents and willingness to work, or on what Martin Luther King called 'the content of their character'. By extension, social equality is unjust because it treats unequal individuals equally.” "Political Ideologies" by Andrew Heywood (2003)
I have already discussed the problem of induction.
"Scientists animated by the purpose of proving they are purposeless constitute an interesting subject for study." - Alfred North Whitehead