Need Critical Thinking Help! Topic 1. Aliens visiting earth hehe

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Need Critical Thinking Help! Topic 1. Aliens visiting earth hehe

Ok, guys and gals. I've only been here a few days. But I like how you guys think so I'll like some help on critical thinking about some ideas. Most of you seem to be better educated than I in critical thinking. I'm mostly self taught so I'm probably severely lacking in a lot of areas.

Since I was young I have been very interested in mysteries. Odd creatures, aliens, etc., etc. This post is about what I think about Aliens visiting Earth. Point out where I'm flawed.

First off, I would like to begin by saying that I am highly skeptical about reports of Aliens visiting Earth. I believe this for the following reasons.

1. Obviously there is no available evidence provided to scientists or researchers that have published any findings. There continues to be occasional references made by individuals that claim to have seen dead bodies or whatnot. But this is all heresay until confirmation. There are tons of UFO reports. And often by fairly reliable people such as military pilots from various countries and whatnot. But UFOs simply means it is unknown. We can't just assume it's Alien aircraft. People claiming to be abducted I attribute to Night Terrors. Humanity has always had them. They used to be Witches and Werewolfs and whatnot, now they are Aliens.

2. The Universe is so vast and ,Earth creatures at least, live very short lives. Since we have not yet found any trace of life or communication signals, we have only theories about the amount of life the universe may possibly hold. On top of this even if life is found, it would be even many times more rare to find intelligent (I.E. Self-Aware) life somewhere other than Earth. Since we have not yet a proven possible way to exceed the speed of light for potential space travel it would take eons for us to explore a tiny part of only our galaxy. And even then only our "local cluster" of galaxies would be possible for us to examine in any amount of time. The same could be said for Alien life. The chances that two intelligent species would run into each other during those two species lifetimes is vanishly small. Possible, but the odds are greatly against it.

3. And this is where it gets down into pure speculation. Several years ago a man who was one of the investigators at the Roswell incident died. He had a statement written up that was not to be opened until after his death. He stated that Roswell was a crash site with the strange materials rumored, a large type of "vehicle" unknown by any present, and that he saw two bodies as are commonly described as "grays". Because of the way he divulged the information (after death so not for publicity or any possible reward for him) makes it sound much more plausible. On top of this he greatly downplayed his role in the investigation during his life.

After already explaining how highly unlikely it would be for two intelligent species from two planets meeting, how much greater of a coincidence would they both be A) Four limbed B) Bipedal C) same basic body shape D) Two eyes on same area of the head E) mouth in same location on head? It boggles the mind. Based on that I would speculate that it would be MUCH more of a chance that those creatures are not Extraterrestrials, but descendents of Homo Sapiens that have finally acquired the ability of time travel.

So then why are they (UFOs/Aliens) reported so much more since the first atomic bomb test than before? To think on that is a little bleak. There is something during our time that they don't know the facts about but are keenly interested in. The most likely idea that pops into the head is nuclear armageddon. Which may help explain why Homo Sapiens would evolve to look like the little gray men. Living underground so the eyes evolve larger to see better in the dark. Smaller bodies due to limited food. Well either that or we blast away the last of the ozone and we can only come out at night to look at a radiated Earth sanitized of all surface life every day by the sun.

Eh, it's all speculation even if it was true. I was just wondering what everyone would think or speculate on the matter.


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Quote: 1. Obviously there

Quote:
1. Obviously there is no available evidence provided to scientists or researchers that have published any findings.

Correct. As with any claim, the claimant is responsible for providing evidence. The complete lack of substantiated evidence is particularly glaring considering the number of people who take this seriously and spend their lives trying to prove it.

Quote:
2. The Universe is so vast and ,Earth creatures at least, live very short lives. Since we have not yet found any trace of life or communication signals, we have only theories about the amount of life the universe may possibly hold. On top of this even if life is found, it would be even many times more rare to find intelligent (I.E. Self-Aware) life somewhere other than Earth. Since we have not yet a proven possible way to exceed the speed of light for potential space travel it would take eons for us to explore a tiny part of only our galaxy. And even then only our "local cluster" of galaxies would be possible for us to examine in any amount of time. The same could be said for Alien life. The chances that two intelligent species would run into each other during those two species lifetimes is vanishly small. Possible, but the odds are greatly against it.

Also correct. Furthermore, given the vastness of our universe, the extremely precise calculations necessary to get anywhere in space, and the amount of radiation bombarding any spacecraft travelling near to a solar system, it is safe to say that there are not Star-Trek like ships out there just wandering around, hoping to run into something. Since humans have only been giving off detectable signals of our existence for around 100 years, any aliens visiting us would have had to find us within the past 100 years, and immediately set off on a journey to earth, meaning of course, that they are less than 100 light years from here. We've surveyed our immediate astronomical neighborhood pretty thoroughly, and seen nothing to suggest any intelligence near us.

Quote:
After already explaining how highly unlikely it would be for two intelligent species from two planets meeting, how much greater of a coincidence would they both be A) Four limbed B) Bipedal C) same basic body shape D) Two eyes on same area of the head E) mouth in same location on head? It boggles the mind.

Yep. You're exactly right.

Quote:
Based on that I would speculate that it would be MUCH more of a chance that those creatures are not Extraterrestrials, but descendents of Homo Sapiens that have finally acquired the ability of time travel.

A much better speculation is that they don't exist, or that they did exist, but were a fraud. Or, that the man who claimed this after his death simply had a really good sense of humor.

Given no outside corroboration for time travel, no scientifically verified evidence of such time travellers, and the track record of other extraordinary claims of the same sort (I'd guess zero out of fifty thousand or so, off the top of my head), there's no reason to treat this theory as anything other than wild, unsubstantiated speculation.

Quote:
So then why are they (UFOs/Aliens) reported so much more since the first atomic bomb test than before?

The first atomic bomb test happened around the same time that the genre of science fiction was being born. Science fiction was born right around the time we learned that the universe is actually immense, and that there are potentially tens of thousands of worlds that could sustain life, in theory. Furthermore, the virtually limitless energy potential inside the atom led to wild speculation about the possibility of interstellar travel.

Putting all these facts together, we can easily surmise that people with wild imaginations invented the idea of aliens visiting earth, and people with equally wild imaginations began to imagine that they had seen UFOs when they had actually seen aircraft, balloons, meteors, hallucinations, or optical illusions.

Quote:
Eh, it's all speculation even if it was true. I was just wondering what everyone would think or speculate on the matter.

I think it's so unlikely as to be disregarded completely. Are you familiar with Occam's Razor? Basically, the idea is that whenever you have multiple possible explanations for something, the answer that fits the facts with the simplest explanation, and the least extraneous information, is usually true.

So, which is simpler?

1) Humans from the future, who manage to create time travel despite having obliterated their world, have come back in time to kidnap people, then put them back with no way for them to verify the experience, and to fly around in strange spacecrafts, doing nothing that can be scientifically verified.

2) When people learned how big the universe really is, and that the power of the atom is enormous, they imagined that we might one day be able to travel in space. They further imagined that if we could do it, other races could, too. Once that idea was planted in the public's head, someone thought they saw a UFO, but it was really something terrestrial. Once that hit the news, the public ran with it, and it's snowballed over the years, so that now, lots of people who haven't thought critically about the subject, think there are aliens visiting us, despite the lack of any evidence whatsoever.  Later on, people, believing firmly in the idea of UFOs, imagined that if they had spaceships here, they might land on earth sometimes.  When they imagined what aliens might look like, they created them in the image of man, since they'd never actually seen an alien.

For my money, I'll take Door #2, Bob.

 

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Cool theory. Besides, it's

Cool theory.  Unfortunately, Hambydammit is right about the evidence and explanations.  If it was true though, and humans were evolving into little gray people, I wonder what bizzare explanation the creationists would give? Laughing out loud

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Ok, then let's add an

Ok, then let's add an imaginative story.  You are sitting in your living room one day and the show you're watching gets interrupted with the following report.

"Scientists have discovered an unidentified body that is baffling!  Looking almost identical to the "Grays", the little men that are associated with UFOs, it stands at approximately 4 foot tall, with four limbs, appears bipedal, has an extremely large head, and large black eyes.  Biological test and examinations are being conducted.  More news as it arrives."

 What would you think that it could be?  Alien or descendent of Homo Sapiens or what?

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First of all, I'd want to

First of all, I'd want to know if it's alive or dead.  Secondly, I'd pull out my 12-gauge just to be safe.  Maybe I'm paranoid, but I don't need gray creatures coming into my house and attacking me. Laughing out loud

I'd say that it's a species that has evolved from man.  I'd be curious to know where the body was found, perhaps that could lead us to more information as to how it evolved from humans.  Unless there was a spaceship of some type sitting somewhere, or those creepy crop circles everywhere around the world (or some other compelling evidence), I'd say it's a species that has evolved from humans.

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The most important aspect

The most important aspect of this, imho, is that it has no distinguishable effect on my life. Therefor I don't give it much thought.

To believe without evidence is absurd. To dismiss without cause is pernicious. To worry without relevance is mad.

You are much better off spending your time pondering solutions to real problems, like our beloved president.

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Oh heck, we're just having

Oh heck, we're just having some fun. :P  Besides, man is going to have to evolve sometime, isn't he?

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hehe.  I agree Dan.  We

hehe.  I agree Dan.  We can't be serious all the time can we?  How boring.  I think the conjecture on this is entertaining and a somewhat decent exercise in rational thinking.

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I'll tell you, I used to be

I'll tell you, I used to be really into the ideas of aliens (truth be told I still am).  However, since becoming an atheist, I've started questioning every other supernatural and paranormal thing I've come across.  That's back when I took personal experiences to be scienficial evidence (oh yeah, I've leanred a lot since then).

 I'm very open to the possibility to other life existing outside of our solar system, as well as our galaxy.  I mean, it's very arrogant not to think that there isn't some other life out there.  Actually, that was one of the things that helped me become an atheist.  I figured that it was quite farfetched to believe that if there were aliens out there, that Jesus died for them too.  Or maybe he traveled to each alien planet to die for their sins too.  I bet I could make a new religion out of that (if there isn't already).  

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I agree.  The arrogance of

I agree.  The arrogance of theistic humanity assuming that the universe is merely a backdrop to our existence is dumbfounding in the extreme. 

The entire universe was created only so our single species on this planet filled with thousands if not millions of species could admire and study it only by us.  How arrogant is that?

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Nothing wrong with

Nothing wrong with pondering the possibilities, I just mean that some people get wrapped up in these things and take them far too seriously.

I actually love sci-fi, and I think it would be great if we met a race from another planet. The technological advancements alone would be great, not to mention the theological implications.

I would also like to caution people against the assumption that the lightspeed barrier will never be broken. 150 years ago nobody dreamed that international flights would someday not only be possible, but become a bore. Mankind is constantly breaking the barriers we set for ourselves.

In the same vein, I have no problem believing that some distant race with an evolutional jump-start may have solved the problem long ago, and is exploring the universe right now.

However, I do have a problem with the idea that an advanced race would not wish to make themselves known to us, and that they would rather hide beyond our range of detection while occasionally abducting some hick to anally probe and leave us with nothing but a crop circle and some mutilated cows. Puh-lease.

Anyway, I don't think about it that much. Tongue out

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Max Wilder wrote: I would

Max Wilder wrote:

I would also like to caution people against the assumption that the lightspeed barrier will never be broken. 150 years ago nobody dreamed that international flights would someday not only be possible, but become a bore. Mankind is constantly breaking the barriers we set for ourselves.

But international flights don't go against the laws of physics.  According to Einstein's theory, it isn't possible to travel faster than the speed of light.  That's where all the wierd stuff happens, like energy being converted into mass and vice versa.  Correct me if I'm wrong, I'm no scientist, but from what I understand the above is true.

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I'd like to think that any

I'd like to think that any species sophisticated enough to develop a ship that could travel at a speed which would get them to Earth from one of even the relatively close star systems in a reasonable amount of time would have sensing equipment good enough to render anal probes unnecessary. Smiling

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Quote: What would you think

Quote:
What would you think that it could be?  Alien or descendent of Homo Sapiens or what?

Realistically I'd think its a fake. We have gotten them before so it wouldn't be a shocker.

Now if someone is claiming to find a dead one I have case study you should look at.

Fugly looking thing

Its not pretty is it...

Now people didn't know what it was, but they did have something to go on.

Fokelore! However it was just one of these guys.

Just not as dead or half eaten...

I'm talking about the Stronsay Beast btw, its basically a sea monster.

I suggest you try to find a show called "Is it real?" its kinda like those In Search Of shows on scifi or the history channel except they try to show the scientific theories against it.

Master Jedi Dan wrote:
I'd pull out my 12-gauge just to be safe. Maybe I'm paranoid, but I don't need gray creatures coming into my house and attacking me. :D

Dude no one needs anything coming into their house and attacking them. Btw I'd have a spas 15 AND AK if I thought someone was going to attack me. shooting

The AK kinda depends on if I can aford it... Class 3 makes the wallet skinny. 


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Watcher wrote: "Scientists

Watcher wrote:
"Scientists have discovered an unidentified body that is baffling! Looking almost identical to the "Grays", the little men that are associated with UFOs, it stands at approximately 4 foot tall, with four limbs, appears bipedal, has an extremely large head, and large black eyes. Biological test and examinations are being conducted. More news as it arrives."

What would you think that it could be? Alien or descendent of Homo Sapiens or what?

The last thing I would guess would  be time travellers because time travel is likely to not be possible, based on our best understanding of science. Much more likely would be a hoax, with the most likely hoaxers being humans.

If it were a real living 'gray', the odds would be highly against its being the product of unguided evolution. More likely it would have been designed to look the way it does, so that it more closely matches Earth-like anatomy. 

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Voiderest wrote:

Voiderest wrote:

Btw I'd have a spas 15 AND AK if I thought someone was going to attack me. shooting

Spas 15 FTW!!! (oops, double post)

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Voiderest wrote:

Voiderest wrote:

Btw I'd have a spas 15 AND AK if I thought someone was going to attack me. shooting

Spas 15 FTW!!! Best gun ever.

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Master Jedi Dan wrote: Max

Master Jedi Dan wrote:

Max Wilder wrote:

I would also like to caution people against the assumption that the lightspeed barrier will never be broken. 150 years ago nobody dreamed that international flights would someday not only be possible, but become a bore. Mankind is constantly breaking the barriers we set for ourselves.

But international flights don't go against the laws of physics. According to Einstein's theory, it isn't possible to travel faster than the speed of light. That's where all the wierd stuff happens, like energy being converted into mass and vice versa. Correct me if I'm wrong, I'm no scientist, but from what I understand the above is true.

That's exactly what I'm talking about. You are assuming that what we know about physics right now is the absolute truth and will never be proven wrong or incomplete. History has shown that we are constantly changing and refining our understanding of the rules, and there is no reason to assume that something that seems impossible today will remain impossible forever.

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Quote: That's exactly what

Quote:
That's exactly what I'm talking about. You are assuming that what we know about physics right now is the absolute truth and will never be proven wrong or incomplete. History has shown that we are constantly changing and refining our understanding of the rules, and there is no reason to assume that something that seems impossible today will remain impossible forever.

But what you're suggesting is that we should discard voluminous supporting data for the theory that light speed is the turning point for matter/energy, and without one scrap of scientific evidence to back it up, seriously consider a scenario in which everything we know is drastically wrong. It makes for a good sci-fi read, but has no basis in science.

The OP asked for help with critical thinking. Well, if we're thinking critically, we are forced to discard the notion that everything we know about physics is wrong, simply because we like the conclusion we could reach if it were so.

If you want to imagine there are aliens putting things up people's butts to allow the ancients to come back and summon almighty Grokk from his mystical magical time portal, go right ahead, but the OP asked for critical thinking, not wild, unsuported speculation.

 

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Hambydammit wrote: But

Hambydammit wrote:

But what you're suggesting is that we should discard voluminous supporting data for the theory that light speed is the turning point for matter/energy, and without one scrap of scientific evidence to back it up, seriously consider a scenario in which everything we know is drastically wrong.

I am absolutely not suggesting that everything we know is wrong, only incomplete and unrefined. I am suggesting that what you assume to be an absolute limit is only one way of looking at the problem, and we have only begun to examine other possibilities. To assert that we will never find a way over the next hurdle is pessimistic and ignores a long history of human ingenuity.

If you care to re-read what I have posted before, you will find that my critical thinking leads me to the conclusion that current alien visitation is highly unlikely, considering the evidence we have so far. I would ask that you not accuse me of making "wild, unsuported speculation", as my optimisim for the future is solidly based on the track record of human achievements thus far.

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Max Wilder

Max Wilder wrote:
Hambydammit wrote:

But what you're suggesting is that we should discard voluminous supporting data for the theory that light speed is the turning point for matter/energy, and without one scrap of scientific evidence to back it up, seriously consider a scenario in which everything we know is drastically wrong.

I am absolutely not suggesting that everything we know is wrong, only incomplete and unrefined. I am suggesting that what you assume to be an absolute limit is only one way of looking at the problem, and we have only begun to examine other possibilities. To assert that we will never find a way over the next hurdle is pessimistic and ignores a long history of human ingenuity.

If you care to re-read what I have posted before, you will find that my critical thinking leads me to the conclusion that current alien visitation is highly unlikely, considering the evidence we have so far. I would ask that you not accuse me of making "wild, unsuported speculation", as my optimisim for the future is solidly based on the track record of human achievements thus far.

 

Well the thing about flying across the atlantic and breaking the sound barrier is that those things were not a fundamental impossibility in physics. You simply cannot accelerate matter to the speed of light. The energy required to accelerate your mass to the speed of light asymtotes and becomes infinite at C. Your mass and length also approach infinity, while your width approaches zero,and before you accelerated to the speed of light you will have used up all the energy (and even space) in the entire universe.

 What might be possible, however, is to manipulate space in such a way that you appear at a different position, all the while never accelerating to C. This can be done using wormholes or some kind of artificial space-warping device (think warp engines), but even doing this would be extremely difficult, and a ship traveling through a wormhole or using a warp bubble might be compressed or crushed when it did so.

 I think the highest feasible speed would be around 0.9 C. You would still need a ton of energy, the mass of your ship would be twice as great, and time would go twice as slowly for you. But I think this speed is feasible using a fusion or extremely powerful plasma engine.


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Quote: If you care to

Quote:
If you care to re-read what I have posted before, you will find that my critical thinking leads me to the conclusion that current alien visitation is highly unlikely, considering the evidence we have so far. I would ask that you not accuse me of making "wild, unsuported speculation", as my optimisim for the future is solidly based on the track record of human achievements thus far.

Yeah, I hear what you're saying.  The wild unsupported speculation I was referring to was the OP's speculation that humans from the future have come back, etc...   The flaw in your posts is that the claim that we could be wrong about quantum physics is being used as a supporting piece of evidence, and that's not critical thinking.  That's wild speculation.

Adding "we could be wrong, so this wild, unsupported speculation could be right" isn't adding any knowledge to the argument, but it sounds as if it is a supporting piece of information.  Any argument could be wrong, and any scientific knowledge could be mistaken.  This is a given before any discussion.  The thing is, until there's some evidence that what we know might be mistaken, "mistaken science" can't be used as a support for a conclusion.

So, you see, while you are technically correct, all that statement does is encourage bad thinking while contributing nothing of substance to the thought process.

 

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Hambydammit wrote: Adding

Hambydammit wrote:

Adding "we could be wrong, so this wild, unsupported speculation could be right" isn't adding any knowledge to the argument, but it sounds as if it is a supporting piece of information.

I think we may be having two different discussions. I'm speaking about hypothetical future discoveries, based on the fact that we have much to learn about the fundamental structure of the universe.

I'm not saying "maybe Einstein was wrong", just that his theory (as he himself readily admitted) does't account for everything. We have a lot of gaps in our knowledge. Even if we assume that everything we believe right now is absolute truth (as you seem to be insisting), there is no reason to assume that we will never find alternative methods of transportation that do not conflict with the theory of relativity.

You are arguing for limitations based on incomplete knowledge. That, in my opinion, is bad thinking.

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Nah, you're

Nah, you're misunderstanding what I'm saying.

Critical thinking is about getting to the answer that is either demonstrably correct, or most likely to be correct.

The question is, "Is it credible to say that what people believe are aliens are actually descendents of humans who have come back in time?"

The answer to that is "no" even though it's possible to think of a scenario in which it could happen.   Here's why:

1) Using available information, we can form a parsimonious explanation for the appearance of aliens in the public imagination.  This explanation is supported by the total lack of verifiable evidence for the presence of aliens.

2) Given the reliability of Occam's razor, we could discard the future man theory out of hand, but there is more reason to discard it.

3) For the future man theory to be correct, we have to postulate not only that our current theories in physics are wrong, we also have to postulate the way in which they are wrong (they are wrong in such a way that the truth allows time travel).  Given the complete lack of evidence for this postulation, we should discard it as wild speculation.

4) I am not arguing for limitations.  There are limits to everything, so nobody needs to argue for them.  I am saying that speculation about the limits of physics only have validity when there's evidence to suggest the speculation.  There is no evidence I'm aware of that suggests that physics may be wrong in the way you suggest.  Therefore, the speculation contributes nothing positive, and gives the false sense that the future man theory has more credibility than it does.

 Don't get me wrong.  I think it's a neat idea, and it would probably make a good show on the Sci-Fi channel.  But, it's not good critical thinking to entertain the idea without some backing, and there simply is none.

To sum up:

Is it possible that future man is coming back in time and we are perceiving them as aliens?

Yes.

Is it likely?

It is so unlikely given our current knowledge, that it's not worth considering.

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Well actually I had two

Well actually I had two different parts to my OP, both involving critical thinking.

The first part was the case of aliens visiting earth, upon which I put what led me to disbelieve in such a thing occuring.

The second part was pure speculation originating not in probabilities but a theoretical possibility.  If we did have a dead body that we knew was a real dead body that looked like one of the "grays" associated with UFOs, was it more likely, with the extreme similar outward physical similarities between us and it, whether it was more likely to be an alien or related to Homo Sapiens.  In which case if it was more likely to be related to humanity that it was a time traveling descendent of humanity.

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Quote: The first part was

Quote:
The first part was the case of aliens visiting earth, upon which I put what led me to disbelieve in such a thing occuring.

With you so far.

Quote:
If we did have a dead body that we knew was a real dead body that looked like one of the "grays" associated with UFOs, was it more likely, with the extreme similar outward physical similarities between us and it, whether it was more likely to be an alien or related to Homo Sapiens.

Here's where I didn't follow you.

If we had a body, and it was that closely related to human, particularly if it had many of the same or similar organs, I don't know that the time travel theory would be any more attractive, simply because at this time it appears that time travel is impossible.

It would depend on the circumstances of finding the body what the best theory would be, but my best guess is that it would be from our time, and that it would be related to homo sapien.

 

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Actually according to

Actually according to Einstien's Theory of Relativity time travel is clearly possible.

Of course only in regards to traveling forward into time not backwards in time. 

The next "Einstein"-like figure might possibly find a loophole not realized yet.

Also in regards to organs within the creature, I mentioned the "outward physical similarities", so internal organs are unknown as far as the thinking in this question goes.

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Right.  The way I

Right.  The way I understand it, travelling forward isn't all that difficult, theoretically, but physically it's an incredibly daunting task.  At speeds far, far below those that would accomplish worthwhile time travel, a tiny speck of space dust would cause immense damage to sensitive machinery.  Imagine what thousands of such particles would do!

As far as backwards goes, I just can't see any way around the following logic:

1) Relativity and quantum physics, while not complete, have proven incredibly reliable, and must be viewed as accurate until there is evidence that they are not.

2) Time travel backwards contradicts everything we know about these sciences.

3) Therefore, any such creature discovered would have to be concluded to come from our own time, or, as an extreme stretch of possibility, from the past.

Note: This is all contingent on me being correct about physics' take on backwards time travel.  As always, the logic is only as good as the data, and I'm not a theoretical physicist.

 

Atheism isn't a lot like religion at all. Unless by "religion" you mean "not religion". --Ciarin

http://hambydammit.wordpress.com/
Books about atheism