I suspect the war will start in October, just in time for the November elections. That'll be our "October Surprise" for this election. That'll cement the folks who say, "Can't change horses mid-stream, we need a strong leader like McCain," and pretty much guarantee us another four years of massive fuckage.

But hell, even Hillary was making grunting noises in Iran's direction. So it might not just be conservatives who think we need to bend the entire Middle East over an oil dereck and give them a good old-fashioned American ass-fucking.

So, I say, "October."

They are a nation of ~90 million people, fairly rich with oil revenue...if you mean they can't wage a sustained war on American soil, well yes of course they can't, we would never let that occur. It all depends on the objective of the mission really. If the mission is to go in to Isfahan and other satellite cities of uranium enrichment to carry out tactical attacks on nuclear sites, there is not much they can do outside of sending bombers to America or using it as justification to destroy the US ally of Israel. But...if it is not an isolated strike, or measure of force with a narrow military objective, and the ultimate plan becomes regime change, domino effect, western-style democratization of the greater middle east, and implementation of a US friendly government, as has been the case with Afghanistan and Iraq....then this "surgical strike" nonsense will be as flimsy as Rumsfeld's "six days, six weeks. I doubt six months" assessment of a war with Iraq.

My money's riding with Nigel on this one.

Well, there' not really any strong evidence that we're right, either. With the U.S. military overextended as it is, they'll have to jump through some pretty creative hoops in order to invade Iran before election month. If they at all can do it, though, I think the neo cons will. It's a proven method of keeping power in their hands, it's a nice way to stimulate the economy, it shows the rest of the world just how big their dicks really are... and to top it all off, hey - it's only some stupid Arabs in the desert. Who cares about a bunch of them being blown-up?

*Sigh*

The most promising thing about this instance is that it's largely up to the IDF. The U.S. isn't really in a position to simply jump Iran right now. The Iraelis would have to lead the way. From a historical perspective, this fact alone could theoretically keep the peace. The IDF has traditionally been reluctant to go the on the offensive, and with good reason: they're literally surrounded on all sides. If they attacked one arab state, they'd be vulnerable to counter-attacks from the others.

Razor, I think you're probably right. There won't be a full-scale invasion, 'cuz as Kevin points out, we don't have the manpower. But, we do have some planes in the area. I suspect we'll see some "surgical strikes," a-la Clinton's bombing of Iraq. It'll be over and done with before you can say, "But I was using that power plant," and the US will say, "Hey, nuclear facilities. WMDs," and we'll all just move on with a little foreign egg on our face, and McCain sitting in the hot seat.

The whole thing is kinda frightening, though, in a foreign relations sort of way.

I'm hoping this won't be the case, but I think a fairly likely scenario is being presented here, given what we've seen from the past decade of "statecraft".  And I'm not just referring to Bush.  A vacillating Europe, a cynical China and Russia and fundamentalist douchebags in both Israel and Iran have all needed to be in place to bring us to our current state of disarray.  And while the US ground forces are overextended, the Air Force has had plenty of time to rearm with JDAMs and JSOWs and I'm certain they're itching to take the new F-22 into a real combat situation.  You wouldn't need to put boots on the ground if you just bombed the shit out of the nuclear centrifuges and the missile assembly sites, now would you? 

It should also be pointed out that Iran's military is actually fairly strong these days.  After a decade of human wave-style offense against the Soviet-armed, US-backed Iraqi forces, they've made certain that they're not going to fight their next war like a bunch of rabid chimps and have seriously upgraded in almost every area (though I don't think their navy's much to speak of).  If you look at the two countries we've invaded in the last few years, you'll notice that neither were economically ready for a fight.  Iran most definitely is, even with the half-assed sanctions under which they're operating.

This used to be my concern, but I've realized that few US politicians would actually want to reinstate the draft, since this time their children would have to serve. I have confidence that we've reached that point of social maturity since Vietnam, if no other.

In fact, there is one rather liberal politician (I'm blanking on his name right now) who argues for the draft for Exactly This Reason: that the people who send other people's kids to war should know what it's like, and maybe there wouldn't be so many wars.

I think that if a country is forced to instate a draft to fight a war that something is seriously wrong.  I don't know about you guys but if WWIII broke out with conventional warfare and it was serious enough that America could be overtaken and my family threatened...well you wouldn't need to draft me.  I'd already be in the military and dead before the first enemy troop got off the coastline of America.

I'd rather die fighting them than see them get their hands on my family.

Killing non-combatants is illegal and I would refuse to listen to any order to do so unless there was no way to not (I.E. carpet bombing which recently has been signed by over a hundred countries as prohibited).  There were a lot of German soldiers during WWII that either A) refused to kill civilians or B) commited suicide instead of doing so.

Bottom line.  My family in danger?  I die before them.  But if we really get down to the nitty gritty and it's either their family or mine?  Then it's theirs.

Evolutionary survival is a bitch.  Compassion is a luxury.

What the hell?

The US is far from perfect. Our government (especially the Bush administration) has made some unsound decisions in the past few years, and we are, frankly, behind a number of other countries when it comes to environmental consciousness, eradication of religion, and not overeating onesself to death. And in fact, because of my dissatisfaction with the government, I have boycotted Independence Day celebrations since 2004 - not really to make a political statement, but rather, because the current state of affairs doesn't inspire in me a celebratory mood. It's too hard for me to get into it these days.

But despite all the stupidity and blatant disregard for humanity, there are still a lot of smart and wonderful people in this country - some of the people on these forums are good representatives. And we are doing what we can to change things. I personally have taken part in several marches and protests combatting racism, and have also met with professors on starting up an atheist movement on my college campus, since there currently isn't one. I conserve energy and resources when possible. I have goals of pursuing a career in scientific research, in order to better our understanding of the world.

I wouldn't mind moving to Canada or Europe, where I would perhaps be in the company of likeminded people. But circumstances currently prevent me from doing that, as I'm sure is the case for many others. I'm in the middle of obtaining my bachelor's degree with definite plans to go for a master's (and maybe a Ph.D. sometime in the future). I can't just drop out of school and leave behind my ambitions. What good does that do anybody?

Plus, I'd miss my family, and would have to take that into serious consideration before even moving to a different region of the US. On top of that, my family just immigrated here 50 years ago, to give their descendents better opportunities, and would be more than a little insulted to see me toss aside their dream.

I don't know where you live, but I'm sure you wouldn't be too pleased if someone suggested nuking your country. I'm sure you have your own political issues to deal with where you live. Next time, please think before you speak.

'No offense'?

"I hope someone gruesomely mutilates you with the most destructive weaponry ever devised, and leaves one of the most civilized, progressive and productive countries in the world a radioactive wasteland. No offense, though."

Dude, no country in the world - my neighbors to the south included - is perfect. America is MILES AND MILES culturally ahead of Iran, and just about every other country in the Middle East. Free market ideology and capitalism are our best hope for a future.

And here you stand, saying we should erase it all with death and fire, marching gleefully back into the stone age (and probably extinction shortly thereafter, given that pounding America with nuclear weapons would likely leave enough radiation and fallout drifting through the world to sterilize most of it).

Matt, I'm going to say this in the nicest possible way, but there's no way to make it anything but brutal.  Read a book about Game Theory.  Please.  You don't know jack shit about how or why trade, group competition, and the Commitment Model interact, or why Ricardo's Law of Comparative Advantage is so unavoidable.

I'm guessing you have no idea where the mathematical balance between Tragedy of the Commons and Communal Territories lies, or why nucleation of communal territories breeds overconsumption, or why Hardin's authoritarian approach to communal enforcement is at odds with the very competitive strategy that defines human morality.

In short, I know you've read a lot of political and philosophical opinion about how much capitalism sucks, but it's obvious that you don't know some of the real economics behind it.  Well, to be fair, you could be aware of it and just be irrationally clinging to your beliefs.  In any case, I don't know that there's anyone here who is thrilled with the vast divide between rich and poor in America.  This is not a result of capitalism.  It's a result of bureaucracy imposing chaos on otherwise healthy competition model.

I don't argue economics or politics on RRS because I know a hell of a lot more about science than politics, but your statements about capitalism are objectively wrong... scientifically.

I am not going to tell you to "Go fuck yourself".

But do you understand that there are HUMANS in both countries that DONT like all the threats going back and forth between the two governments?

A nuke being used in this day and age is going to affect the entire planet, including people you love. I think WE would be better off threating our own respective governments not to use them.

OUR governments are the problem, not all the people living under them.

You have family and loved ones just like I do, just like Christians do, just like Jews do. I know you have loved ones to. If WE as humans want to save our loved ones OUR goverments should give a shit not to use nukes. Otherwise if we do, who we love wont matter because we will be thrown back to fighting with rocks and sticks, and it wont be other countries, it will be our own neighbors.