Oh, fuck. Here we go...
Posted on: April 28, 2009 - 6:12pm
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Oh, fuck. Here we go...
Looks like swine flu, as predicted, has managed to beat-out avian flu for starting an epidemic - and possibly a pandemic, depending on how rapidly/effectively we can lock that shit down (...on the slightly brighter side, at least it's swine flu; it'll be much easier (see: not totally impossible) to quarantine than avian flu).
129 people confirmed dead as a result of contracting the virus, including perfectly healthy adults with strong immune systems.
Fuck.
Quote:
"Natasha has just come up to the window from the courtyard and opened it wider so that the air may enter more freely into my room. I can see the bright green strip of grass beneath the wall, and the clear blue sky above the wall, and sunlight everywhere. Life is beautiful. Let the future generations cleanse it of all evil, oppression and violence, and enjoy it to the full."
- Leon Trotsky, Last Will & Testament
February 27, 1940
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Anyone blame it on atheism yet ?
I don't want to be flippant about people's deaths but 129 doesn't really seem like that many. Don't tens of thousands of people die from influenza every year?
There are twists of time and space, of vision and reality, which only a dreamer can divine
H.P. Lovecraft
I think Mexico is especially vulnerable to this shit because just about everything important to the infrastructure of the country is woefully under-funded.
For most of the US, should it get to the "epidemic" phase, simple planning for when to be in public (food shopping, etc) and the washing of the hands will likely be sufficient on the part of an individual to minimize exposure. On the other hand, for those wanting to do more than "minimize", I offer this product as an alternative.
"Anyone can repress a woman, but you need 'dictated' scriptures to feel you're really right in repressing her. In the same way, homophobes thrive everywhere. But you must feel you've got scripture on your side to come up with the tedious 'Adam and Eve not Adam and Steve' style arguments instead of just recognising that some people are different." - Douglas Murray
129 people since the outbreak, Gauche. That is a ton of corpses for a virus to create in a matter of days - particularly when one realizes that many of these people were otherwise healthy adults.
I think the 'guesstimate' statistic is that for every corpse you can expect about 20 other people to be infected. So, think about that - we might have about 2,000 people (and climbing) infected with a disease that is easily transmissible and quite capable of killing even healthy adults. That's some real trouble.
- Leon Trotsky, Last Will & Testament
February 27, 1940
I'm not worried about it. It's just the regular flu, that we dont have a vaccine against.
Theism is why we can't have nice things.
I ignored it the first day, but by the third there were no less than 7 nations and hundreds of people with suspected or confirmed cases. Yeah, this is probably it.
Enlightened Atheist, Gaming God.
It's kind of disturbing because it's not really flu season and the people were healthy but it's understandable. From what I've read a healthier person with a respiratory infection will die faster than someone with a weaker immune system.
But around 40,000 people die from the flu every year, averaged out that's about a hundred people a day. So saying that 129 people died in a few days doesn't really seem like that many considering how many people die anyway.
There are twists of time and space, of vision and reality, which only a dreamer can divine
H.P. Lovecraft
"Anyone can repress a woman, but you need 'dictated' scriptures to feel you're really right in repressing her. In the same way, homophobes thrive everywhere. But you must feel you've got scripture on your side to come up with the tedious 'Adam and Eve not Adam and Steve' style arguments instead of just recognising that some people are different." - Douglas Murray
PANIC PANIC OMG OMG PANIC!!!!111oneoneone
Really, the media is great at trying to incite panic. It's the flu. Thats it.
Yes, you could die if you get the flu and don't go to the hospital. And guess what? Usually people ARE healthy before they get SICK. That's generally the order it goes in. And then after they are sick, they usually are HEALTHY again.
So yeah, like new zealand had 11 students infected and they are better now. Most people in countries other than mexico that got this flu there, seem to recover easily enough.
I don't see this as something to be worried about. If I feel really bad, I'll go get medical care so I don't drown on fluid in my lungs.
But if you love histeria, then this is great for you.
Theism is why we can't have nice things.
There are twists of time and space, of vision and reality, which only a dreamer can divine
H.P. Lovecraft
yes. So far no one outside mexico has died though. There have been many confirmed sick, and recovered at this point from the virus...but no deaths.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090428/ap_on_he_me/med_swine_flu
..."
Napolitano added that in a normal seasonal influenza season, about 35,000 deaths are linked to the flu.
Besser said the U.S. has 64 confirmed cases across five states, with 45 in New York, one in Ohio, two in Kansas, six in Texas and 10 in California.
...Flu deaths are nothing new in the United States or elsewhere. The CDC estimates that about 36,000 people died of flu-related causes each year, on average, during the 1990s in the United States. "
Theism is why we can't have nice things.
"Anyone can repress a woman, but you need 'dictated' scriptures to feel you're really right in repressing her. In the same way, homophobes thrive everywhere. But you must feel you've got scripture on your side to come up with the tedious 'Adam and Eve not Adam and Steve' style arguments instead of just recognising that some people are different." - Douglas Murray
Oh, If I worked for the CDC I'd have to be PREPARED for a worst case scenario, and take steps...but I don't see why I would be worried about it, still.
Yes, immune system quality has less to do with this as people that die die from the symptoms, like drowning on fluid in their lungs. A trip to the hospital will fix it if you are that bad. Most people that got this virus didn't get nearly that bad.
The only deaths, are still in mexico. They probably didn't get medical care, and prayed/didn't go seek help when they were in bad shape.
I fully expect trailer parks in the U.S. to have the same risk, of people who want to "tough it out" and not seek help as they drink themselves retarded and watch NASCAR.
Theism is why we can't have nice things.
For clarity: Worry is appropriate, as in it's time to be prepared. Not "worry" as in thoughts of swine flu should dominate the mind.
Preparedness means: don't assume your local health system will be able to handle the threat. Instead, understand how to protect yourself - and that's simple simple. Wash your hands. Avoid common surfaces (payphones, hand rails, etc.). Make use of alcohol based hand cleaners and surface wipes. Don't French kiss strangers. Prepare your own meals.
"Anyone can repress a woman, but you need 'dictated' scriptures to feel you're really right in repressing her. In the same way, homophobes thrive everywhere. But you must feel you've got scripture on your side to come up with the tedious 'Adam and Eve not Adam and Steve' style arguments instead of just recognising that some people are different." - Douglas Murray
"So far, no deaths linked to the disease have been reported outside Mexico."
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090428/ap_on_he_me/med_swine_flu
Posted again! Because you didn't click it before.
It's nothing to be concerned about. If you are that fearful that you will be in a minority that gets a bad case of the swine flu, then go to the hospital. People aren't dieing from the virus itself. The only deaths happened from things that are easily taken care of with standard medical care. My entire family works in the medical field and no one is "worried" about it, beyond it being a flu that few have immunity to, and we have no vaccine against.
But you have the freedom of course to live in fear of anything you want. People do die from the flu every year!
Now if it was a disease that was incurable, and terminal...I would be worried. But the flu is not, so I am not concerned.
Theism is why we can't have nice things.
I do argue that because it's a "flu that few have immunity to, and we have no vaccine against" the potential for an overwhelming epidemic or even pandemic is such that being prepared as individuals is advisable.
Oseltamivir and Zanamivir only slow the virus (meaning they are not a cure), and it's already resistant to Amantadine and Rimantadine. People regularly dies from complications with common flu strains. How is it that I'm being faulted for advising appropriate worry?
"Anyone can repress a woman, but you need 'dictated' scriptures to feel you're really right in repressing her. In the same way, homophobes thrive everywhere. But you must feel you've got scripture on your side to come up with the tedious 'Adam and Eve not Adam and Steve' style arguments instead of just recognising that some people are different." - Douglas Murray
It's not appropriate to worry over something that is a nonissue.
If you want to make a big deal over it, feel free. I don't see why you are trying to break down my posts like I'm arguing with you, I'm just pointing out the obvious lunacy of running around like a chicken with it's head cut off because the media found something to hype.
This isn't a big deal. If everyone on the planet got infected, some people would die yes. It still wouldn't be a big deal. Kay?
If anything it would be a good thing. People would have immunity to the new strain then.
Theism is why we can't have nice things.
However; so long as you insist on mis-characterizing my response to the situation, I'm going to argue with you about it.
"Anyone can repress a woman, but you need 'dictated' scriptures to feel you're really right in repressing her. In the same way, homophobes thrive everywhere. But you must feel you've got scripture on your side to come up with the tedious 'Adam and Eve not Adam and Steve' style arguments instead of just recognising that some people are different." - Douglas Murray
....?
Theism is why we can't have nice things.
This is NOT the same thing as denying that the deaths were in Mexico.
"Anyone can repress a woman, but you need 'dictated' scriptures to feel you're really right in repressing her. In the same way, homophobes thrive everywhere. But you must feel you've got scripture on your side to come up with the tedious 'Adam and Eve not Adam and Steve' style arguments instead of just recognising that some people are different." - Douglas Murray
I agree with you in the sense that basic hygiene (washing hands, etc) should be kept. But that is independant of the flu, and doesn't involve any worrying to my knowledge.
Theism is why we can't have nice things.
Do you have any other explanation for why the travellers are able to recover without incident, and not some of the locals infected in the area?
Much of the population is very religious, and curanderos are still socially accepted there.
I would draw the same conclusion about anywhere that "faith healing" is an acceptable alternative to modern medicine.
Theism is why we can't have nice things.
I worry about it as much as I always worry about catching the flu. How much do you think people should worry?
There are twists of time and space, of vision and reality, which only a dreamer can divine
H.P. Lovecraft
The 'worry', as it were, is that the swine flu has gone from 'swine flu' to 'human flu' and started an immediate and very successful lethal propagation through a human population center. You're presumably aware that viri are organisms that multiply themselves a few million times per host, right? And that each successive generation is slightly different than the last?
Some of these cultures (at least 129, in fact) have proven adaptive enough to overwhelm the human immune system and kill their host. You're aware that vaccines only act to prepare your immune system, right? And that after a particular virus has been through enough hosts... it's changed enough that vaccinating against the original virus is no long effective because, well, the fucker is different now.
So, no, the WHO is not releasing raising a red flag 'just to scare people'. They're raising it with more than legitimate concern on their hands. If the outbreak is not immediately controlled in Mexico City, there are 8,000,000 or so hosts that the parasite can cheerily propagate through and essentially use as mutation fodder. Raise your hand if you want to suddenly deal with a few thousand new strains of influenza (so now we have a whole bunch of catch-up to play with our vaccines) on top of all of our other present problems.
- Leon Trotsky, Last Will & Testament
February 27, 1940
We're way past that stage now. The WHO has been warning for some time that a new flu pandemic will eventually arise. It is an inevitable consequence of evolution. The containment plan that the WHO enacted depended upon being able to form a quarantine ring around the original infestation and suppress it in the infected population using Tamiflu. It is no longer possible to contain the spread now because it is present in the US, Asia, Europe and the Middle East. Right now, we are at a critical point. The next few weeks will determine whether this is going to be the next great pandemic, or will just fizzle out. The truth is, we don't know yet. I am by no means an expert in infectious disease, but fortunately one of my parents is. So I asked her about it, and she said that while at this stage it is far too early to tell, a possible worry is that this will fizzle out, and then everyone will rest on their laurels until it comes back in a second wave. That is exactly what happened in 1919. This time around, however, we have several advantages. We have Tamiflu, for one. Unlike SARS (which was a rotavirus) this didn't strike out of the blue. We know how to deal with flu and we can develop a vaccine (the problem is creating enough stock to vaccinate everyone. The eradiation of Smallpox was a 20 year long project). On the other hand, this time around, the virus also has several advantages, like air travel.
"Physical reality” isn’t some arbitrary demarcation. It is defined in terms of what we can systematically investigate, directly or not, by means of our senses. It is preposterous to assert that the process of systematic scientific reasoning arbitrarily excludes “non-physical explanations” because the very notion of “non-physical explanation” is contradictory.
-Me
Books about atheism
But this is nothing new. They have to release a new flu vaccine every year because of this exact reason.
Theism is why we can't have nice things.
Well, what I meant by 'controlling the virus in Mexico City' is suppressing it before it propagates through too much of the local population because of the implementation of Tamiflu in that region. If people who have been innoculated are repeatedly contacted with the virus because it gets out of control, Taiflu might well be rendered impotent in a relatively short span of time.
Then we're in much bigger trouble.
Yes. Yes, swine flu suddenly mutating into a variant strain that can infect humans and rapidly progressing through a major population center is pretty new.
That's like seeing ice shelves collapse and disintegrate on Greenland and saying, "Oh, ice melts all of the time. This is nothing new."
- Leon Trotsky, Last Will & Testament
February 27, 1940
If you want to, fine, but don't expect many to take your inferences and bias as any kind of valid conclusion.
"Anyone can repress a woman, but you need 'dictated' scriptures to feel you're really right in repressing her. In the same way, homophobes thrive everywhere. But you must feel you've got scripture on your side to come up with the tedious 'Adam and Eve not Adam and Steve' style arguments instead of just recognising that some people are different." - Douglas Murray
Provide an explanation then. I'm still waiting.
Theism is why we can't have nice things.
So swine flu, which it is believed originated from humans, can spread back. And influenza is easily transmitted.
The flu easily transmitted? I thought this was common knowledge. Through a major population center? Even more gasp. I thought it spread better in the rural desert areas, where there is no one around and people rarely meet eachother.
Really, acting like this is sudden, new, or even a real threat is laughable. When people that contracted it start dieing in other countries, let me know. As it stands, it seems like everyone has gotten better that caught this virus, except for some people in Mexico City. A small number of people, in a very large city.
It is just the flu. That is it. The flu. Yes, people can die from the flu. People also die from asthma, car accidents, slipping in the bathroom...and far more of them do.
Theism is why we can't have nice things.
*Facepalms*
Here's to missing the point, Clock Cat. Cheers.
In the meantime, I suppose I'll be glad that the U.S. decided to fund preparedness for a flu pandemic in their omnibus spending bill...
...Oh, wait. The Republicans fillibustered that.
Oopsie.
We'll have to wait and see, anyway. Thankfully the WHO has decided to take it as seriously as they have (go figure that experts in the field would).
- Leon Trotsky, Last Will & Testament
February 27, 1940
I called your argument placing the blame for the deaths im Mexico on behavioral issues weak, which it is. I don't care to take similar blind stabs in the dark at what the actual reasons are.
My argument is that this set of outbreaks has the necessary facets to be cause for concern. Period.
"Anyone can repress a woman, but you need 'dictated' scriptures to feel you're really right in repressing her. In the same way, homophobes thrive everywhere. But you must feel you've got scripture on your side to come up with the tedious 'Adam and Eve not Adam and Steve' style arguments instead of just recognising that some people are different." - Douglas Murray
I agree to full preparedness, don't get me wrong. I always think preparing for the worst and hoping for the best is the best resolution, no matter how much I think people overreact.
Preparing for a flu pandemic is better than not, and having an influx of people with it to deal with.
Theism is why we can't have nice things.
Alright then. You are incapable of saying whatever conclusion you have drawn, apparently as to why people recover perfectly fine except for some in Mexico City. A small number of people, at that.
I'm not making an argument, I drew a conclusion based on what I think assisted the problem. If you do not like that conclusion, that is your perogative.
I think it is fairly obvious that it is my opinion, and I never claimed it to be otherwise. I stated the fact that no one died from it outside that location, and then my opinion as to why.
You act like I am trying to convince you of my /thoughts/ citing my personal experience as facts. I'm not. I'm not even arguing with you about it.
But if it makes you feel better to think I am, please continue. :3
Theism is why we can't have nice things.
What will your concern gain for you?
Theism is why we can't have nice things.
Since one of your parents is an expert on infectious diseases ask her about this study published in 2006 out of the University of Wisconsin: see here.
They claim in this December 2006 article they can inhibit flu virus infection by a novel peptide that targets viral cell attachment. I understood the basic idea but it's far beyond me.
Also I saw this out in a February 23, 2009 article claiming a Universal Flu Drug:
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/139924.php
And finally this article also in Medical News Today
http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/147950.php
This one claims they are developing a drug called Flu-cide that will destroy all forms of influenza type A including bird and swine flu. They have both animal and cell culture studies indicating it's highly effective. The company involved, Nanoviricides Inc is in contact with the agencies involved in the current swine flu outbreak informing them of their capabilities and status.
This isn't 1918-19 when there were no anti-bio-tics to fight the infections that came after the Spanish Flu. Many of those that died back then died from pneumonia which I'm sure you knew but several of those that are paranoid may not. See here for more on that:
http://www.nih.gov/news/health/aug2008/niaid-19.htm
____________________________________________________________
"I guess it's time to ask if you live under high voltage power transmission lines which have been shown to cause stimulation of the fantasy centers of the brain due to electromagnetic waves?" - Me
"God is omnipotent, omniscient, omnibenevolent, - it says so right here on the label. If you have a mind capable of believing all three of these divine attributes simultaneously, I have a wonderful bargain for you. No checks please. Cash and in small bills." - Robert A Heinlein.
"Anyone can repress a woman, but you need 'dictated' scriptures to feel you're really right in repressing her. In the same way, homophobes thrive everywhere. But you must feel you've got scripture on your side to come up with the tedious 'Adam and Eve not Adam and Steve' style arguments instead of just recognising that some people are different." - Douglas Murray
It is irrational then, I'll assume.
Theism is why we can't have nice things.
...Then why suggest that the present situation is 'laughable'? That says, to me, that you think the WHO ought to simply be sitting back cracking brews and laughing rather than responding.
Yes, and this is excellent news. However, you'll note that Flu-cide (much like the vaccinations being employed, which are also quite effective at quashing the virus's ability to spread) only works while it is still a recognizable strain of influenza. This is why this is a concern to keep an eye on, IMHO; Mexico City is a densely populated area, so containing the outbreak there (that is, preventing it from infecting more of local populace in significant numbers) is essential. If not, we're talking about the potential for brand new strains of the virus that we do not currently have vaccinations for or anti-biotics for to cultivate themselves into existence.
Saying it is 'just the flu' is stupid. It's only 'just the flu' until it has replicated itself enough times to change into something else.
- Leon Trotsky, Last Will & Testament
February 27, 1940
"Anyone can repress a woman, but you need 'dictated' scriptures to feel you're really right in repressing her. In the same way, homophobes thrive everywhere. But you must feel you've got scripture on your side to come up with the tedious 'Adam and Eve not Adam and Steve' style arguments instead of just recognising that some people are different." - Douglas Murray
I didn't say the situation is laughable. I said that the overreaction by the general public is laughable.
It is. Worrying over something you have no control over, and being concerned about something that likely will not have any effect on your life, because the media found a new toy to throw around and have their network "experts" talk about is indeed very laughable.
For the CDC and WHO, it is something they should be concerned about because that is what they are there to do.
I'm sure there will be a point when there really IS a dangerous viral strain that spreads quickly and kills people. I don't doubt that if nature won't make one, people will. It's fairly inevitable.
I just don't think the average joe worrying over the pig flu is going to help anything.
Theism is why we can't have nice things.
That doesn't seem to sound right.
Well, the average person being informed about what is happening can help things, as they then know to take precautions if/when things get sticky.
There was nothing Harry Truman could do about Mount St. Helens exploding, for example. If he had been better informed about what the circumstances were, however, perhaps he would not have chosen to remain sitting in harm's way.
- Leon Trotsky, Last Will & Testament
February 27, 1940
Shouldn't we all be practising good hygene anyway? You know washing hands baths etc.....
No need to develop OCD or as I call it CDO so the letters are in alphabetical order like they should be.
Somehow I don't think the pig flu is quite the same as an erupting mountain.
Theism is why we can't have nice things.
Well, thus far, the 'pig flu' outbreak has already killed for more people than the 1980 eruption did.
- Leon Trotsky, Last Will & Testament
February 27, 1940
And people slipping in the bathroom has killed even more than that!
Theism is why we can't have nice things.
...In the span of a few days within a radius of a few kilometres? Really?
EDIT: ...And just by the way, people who catch the 'pig flu' are not dying of pneumonia - which is mostly lethal to elderly or young people. The virus has thus far killed it's victims (aged between their early twenties and late forties) via a positive feedback loop involving Cytokines and white blood cells.
If you'd have bothered to 'worry' (see: be informed) about the situation, you'd have known that. Such knowledge could be a life-saver if things got out of hand (hopefully they will not), given that thinking you can just go to the hospital and get treatment for pneumonia would be rather counter-productive.
- Leon Trotsky, Last Will & Testament
February 27, 1940
Yes, of course. However, in the event that the situation got out of control, it also might be prudent to do things like wear disposable latex gloves while going out in public and/or opt to wear a surgical mask. This is why being informed is pretty important; it lets you make a rational decision regarding what sort of individual response is appropriate and which might be just silly for a given circumstance.
EDIT:
TFoot also has some excellent advice for you.
- Leon Trotsky, Last Will & Testament
February 27, 1940
I'm informed about it. My /entire family/ is in the medical field. You are referring to the body overreacting to the illness and secreting too many chemicals, which can cause the lungs to fill with fluid and...the person to drown. Like I mentioned in post #9.
Which anyone with standard medical facilities can take care of easily. The self-imposed drowning doesn't happen all at once, you will feel shortness of breath for a good period of time, as you are slowly drowning.
I looked into it a bit more, and all of the reported deaths are in some of the most impoverished areas of Mexico City, where overcrowding and malnurishment are commonplace.
Oh, as to my earlier speculation, http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/28/swine.flu.mexico/
It may simply be that none of the people that died could /afford/ proper health care, rather than actively choosing to not get it.
Theism is why we can't have nice things.