The future of various religions
Offline I'd like to start a discussion wherein people share their educated assessments (call it "best guesses" if you'd like) of the future of various religions around the world.
I think that Christianity will die out first in Europe sometime during the middle of this century, then in Anglophone Western countries a few decades after that, sans the United States, and finally in the United States, Latin America, and Third World countries, very late in this century, or early in the next century. The reason that I think that Christianity will die out in these three stages is because Europe is the least Christian, and the least backward, the Anglophone West sans the United States is in the middle (Creationism being relatively strong in Australia and Canada, but not as extreme as in the United States), and the United States not much better in terms of superstition than the Third World, so Christianity will die out last here.
I think that Islam will die out first in Europe and the rest of the West, via one of a number of possible scenarios (some of them quite messy). Then, Islam will die out in western, central, and southeastern Asia and northern Africa, sometime after the end of this century, and therefore go extinct.
Judaism, as a no]n-universality, ethno-religion (unlike the other two Abrahamic religions) is already well on its way to extinction, as a huge percentage of ethnic Jews are either not religious, or have converted to some other religion (Wicca, Buddhism, etc.). I think that Judaism will become extinct in this century. Note, however, that Jewish nationalism, which by and large is a secular movement, probably will not go extinct. Contrary to popular misconception, Israel's conflicts with the Palestinians, and its neighbors, is not religious; there are Christian and Atheist Palestinians. Rather, the conflict in western Asia revolves around ethnicity: ethnic Jews, whatever their religion (or lack thereof), versus ethnic Arabs, whatever their religion (or lack thereof). This conflict will therefore almost certain extend past the extinction of Judaism.
Hinduism, existing almost exclusively on the Indian subcontinent, will probably become extinct late in this century, or perhaps early during the next century. India has been thoroughly exposed to Western science over the last few centuries, and despite the presence in India of some violent fundamentalist Hindus, India is secular to a very high degree.
The fate of Buddhism in the rest of Asia will be similar to that of Hinduism, in my opinion.
Various Pagan faiths will die out later, since they tend to generate less conflict, be less dogmatic, and clash with science in ways that are less blatant than those of the Abrahamic religions.
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I don't think religions will ever die out entirely. I think they'll evolve into spiritual ideas that use logic, science, and history to provide an emotional safety net, as it were. I'd estimate that if all goes at the rate it currently is, this will have come to pass in 5 or 6 generations. I think it unlikely that anyone alive today will see it happen.
Enlightened Atheist, Gaming God.
Assuming that I make it to 100 (2078), what do you think that I can reasonably expect to see here in the United States?
To be honest, I don't think there will be much change in larger religions within the next 100 years. The catholic church has been around a very long time, and it may be wishful thinking to believe that we as a civilization are progressive enough to debunk it that soon. As well, devout catholics generally breed devout catholics, devout jews breed devout jews (etc, etc). So barring some unforseen event, I can't see a huge change in that time span.
I hope in 100 years we are closer to your prediction than mine though.
I'm no expert at politics or geography or whatever, so I'm just making wild claims and guesses here, but:
The prognosis depends crucially on how much chaos and conflict occurs in the coming decades, namely environmental crises, war, and terrorism.
The more chaos, the more we'll see a resurgence of extremist, fascistic, fundamentalistic religion.
Assuming our current course, and no technological and/or social breakthroughs, I'm guessing there will be increased crisis, chaos, and conflict in the next 50 years.
Liberal and moderate forms of Christianity will die off in Europe and North America, but will be replaced with a smaller but stronger contingent of fundamentalist evangelicals of the most dangerous kind. Fortunately, atheists and freethinkers will also continue to expand their ranks and may be able to keep the crazies at bay and marginalized.
Countries like Egypt and other 'moderate' Islamic states will see the rise of more fundamentalist regimes. There will be serious war in the Middle East and Asia, such as Pakistan. Crazies will take over governments. Bad shit will happen. The oil crisis will make it all the worse.
Islam will get a foothold in Western Europe, but it will be held at bay by the rising tide of secularism. Some Eastern European countries will see militaristic tyrants rise to power in the face of a populace too superstitious and beaten-down by their history of Communism to put up enough of a democratic fight. When the people are complacent, gangsters will take over.
There will be a rise of militant Hinduism in certain parts of India.
In America, liberal and moderate Christianity will give way to opposing poles of liberal non-religious-but-spiritual plus hardcore secularists/atheists vs. increasingly crazy and nutty fundamentalist Christians. The politics of the two-party will fail completely and there will be alternating periods of worse-than-Bush craziness and catching-our-breath-and-barely-recovering-Obama-esque sanity. The very fact that there are only two viable parties will play into the hands of the nutters who will completely take over the Republican party and win power about 50% of the time.
Few progressive initiatives will be undertaken without having their legs cut from underneath. The environment will go to shit, the economy will fluctuate radically, and America will lose its status as the number 1 superpower. The US will be in a constant state of waging wars, as per usual.
The only sane places will be Scandinavia, Germany, France, Central Europe, Ireland, Japan, Canada, and a few others.
South America will see more war and de-stabilization as insufficiently rational populations allow crazy men to take over their countries and ruin them. Brazil, of all places, may somehow pull out of it, though. There is a small but powerful group of pretty smart people in Brazil at the moment. I honestly don't know enough about their situation to say more than that.
Australia and the UK will follow parallel trajectories. Not as bad as the US, but still not great. Their credulous populations will be taken in by authoritarian conservatives too often, though this will occasionally be balanced by smarter and more socially minded moderates. Religion will remain a minor, but growing sub-culture; but pseudo-science and new age beliefs will proliferate, undermining the public's ability to make sensible decisions.
Judaism around the world will become more of a culture than a religion. But radical, extremist Judaism in the Middle-East will flourish, especially with increased war, crisis, and chaos there.
I expect that at least one nuclear bomb will be used against a population during a war, probably in the Middle East, or possibly from Pakistan.
The primary causes of this chaos and conflict will be shortage of resources, complicated by stupidity and faith. Oil, water, arable land, food, etc. Global warming will exacerbate the problem with flooding, spreading of deserts, destruction of habitat, collapsing of ecosystems, invasive and destructive species, etc.
That's assuming our current course. If our current course gets worse, I could imagine nuclear war, gigadeaths, a coming Dark Age, possible extinction of humans. If our current course gets better (e.g. technological or social breakthrough), we could avoid a lot of war and destruction. Still, I think we'll see more conflict than we have now in the next 50 years.
Best case scenario: The rationalist/secularist movement gains huge momentum, religion around the world is mostly marginalized except for a few hot-spots like Isreal/Palestine, most war is avoided, we discover technology to manage the energy crisis, and discover a way to run the world sustainably, as well as to limit the population through attrition (natural death, decreased birth-rates). Environmental damage slows down. Much crisis and chaos is avoided. We survive for another few hundred years at least (until the next global crisis).
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I'd imagine that most fundamentalist christians would be gone by then. There'd be a few hangers on, but they'd be like conspiracy theorists by that point. Ridiculed and ignored en masse. But christians who are more inclined to reality could still hold a majority.
I don't think islam will go very far in North America. They'd have to pull some amazing shit to get anywhere.
One religion I can see surviving longer than the others is scientology. They have more money per capita than any other religion that ever existed, and they are insular enough to not be particularly harmed by progress. But the courts won't cater to their law suits anymore, and many of their tactics will be turned on them. They will take awhile to get rid of.
Enlightened Atheist, Gaming God.
Despite what the muslims and christians tell us, religion is old. Perhaps not quite as old as humanity but certainly much older than we think.
Aussie aborigines were drawing the creator rainbow serpent on rock walls 15,000 years ago and their rock art stretches back in a largely unbroken line for 50,000 years.
The idea jews or arabs invented religion is small-minded. Religion has served humans for tens of thousands of years at least - probably much longer.
My ancestry is scots and from what little is known about it, the locals there worshipped forest and river gods pre roman invasion - not a silly idea when you think about the importance
of the environment to human survival. Maybe we should go back to that.
As long as humans struggle against forces they don't understand people will find it easier to freeze in reality's headlights rather than face up to its unpleasant truths.
Religion is here to stay.
"Experiments are the only means of knowledge at our disposal. The rest is poetry, imagination." Max Planck
Welcome to the forums Dogma Hater.
As others have said I don't see why religions would die out anytime in the near future. Christianity has continued to be a force throughout the world for nearly 2000 years. Those who believe do so despite evidence to the contrary that shows their beliefs simply can't be true. Everyday there are new converts to it that reject reason and logic and place their hopes on an invisible all caring entity that will save them from life's hardships and reward those who have lived a life of purity and goodness. What this means changes over the years but never the less the deep seated hope in justice for evil doers and rewards for the good remain in their fantasies.
I would agree that Christianity will lose ground throughout the next 100 years but disappearance is not something I see happening. If Americans especially can buy into the complete fabricated religion of Joseph Smith why do you think they would give up on Jesus loves you and died for you and me blah, blah, blah. I have many friends and relatives that are Christian in belief and they seem very fervent in their positions. On the plus side, both of my children who were brought up Catholic are atheists today, much to my ex-wife's dissatisfaction. They both have reasoned out the god belief idea is bullshit. There need to be many more like them, yet my doorbell still rings from the proselytizing Mormons, Seventh Day Adventists, and Jehovah Witnesses.
Jewish belief has deteriorated over the years and will likely continue such a trend, yet it still remains especially in those that consider themselves ethnically Jewish.
Islam on the other hand seems to be spreading like wildfire in many parts of the world. It may not have reached its peak as of yet. It is a fairly simple religion to understand and gives hope to many in the 3rd world that they will be rewarded by Allah and the infidels shall all be punished in the end. Perhaps if Islam is connected with terrorism in the minds of most of the world a stigma will be forever with it that equates Muslims to terrorists. This might stem the tide of conversion or it might actually help them gain converts depending on the actions of the West.
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"I guess it's time to ask if you live under high voltage power transmission lines which have been shown to cause stimulation of the fantasy centers of the brain due to electromagnetic waves?" - Me
"God is omnipotent, omniscient, omnibenevolent, - it says so right here on the label. If you have a mind capable of believing all three of these divine attributes simultaneously, I have a wonderful bargain for you. No checks please. Cash and in small bills." - Robert A Heinlein.
that's very glib, and sounds more informed by hollywood than anything else. as someone who's been all over the region you're talking about several times in the last 8 years, i can tell you the only postcommunist countries where the people are "complacent" are the economically advanced central european countries like the czech republic, slovakia, poland, the baltics, slovenia, and hungary. these countries are all longstanding members of nato and the eu and recently entered the borderless schengen zone. slovakia and slovenia are on the euro. there aren't likely to be any "tyrants" rising up here, unless they rise up in brussels first. in fact, if any "tyrants" rise up anywhere it will be in a strongly grass-roots nationalistic country like macedonia, not in a country where people are too apathetic to defend themselves.
of the former yugoslavian countries, i've been to croatia and macedonia. i've also been to romania. my wife, who is slovak, has spent time in serbia and albania. in fact, she was all over the albanian countryside on donkeyback, in villages without running water. both our experiences have been of fiercely proud, ambitious people, especially the younger generation, who would like nothing more than to move toward nato and eu membership and an enlightened, liberal state. of course, their countries have organized crime, but so does pretty much every european country. the idea of the all-powerful postcommunist mafia is, in my opinion, mostly a myth to make movies.
it's also my opinion that, except perhaps for the very elderly, most central and eastern europeans are no more, and often less, superstitious than americans. they're certainly not a bunch of stereotypical ignorant serfs just waiting to be taken advantage of. the only postcommunist eastern european state i can think of that is blatantly authoritarian is belarus and that can't last much longer, especially with the ukraine's recent trend toward liberalization.
"I have never felt comfortable around people who talk about their feelings for Jesus, or any other deity for that matter, because they are usually none too bright. . . . Or maybe 'stupid' is a better way of saying it; but I have never seen much point in getting heavy with either stupid people or Jesus freaks, just as long as they don't bother me. In a world as weird and cruel as this one we have made for ourselves, I figure anybody who can find peace and personal happiness without ripping off somebody else deserves to be left alone. They will not inherit the earth, but then neither will I. . . . And I have learned to live, as it were, with the idea that I will never find peace and happiness, either. But as long as I know there's a pretty good chance I can get my hands on either one of them every once in a while, I do the best I can between high spots."
--Hunter S. Thompson
Perhaps I could have used a clearer word or phrase, but this is what I meant by 'complacent': Not complacent in the sense of sit around and do nothing, but specifically in relation to the ideas of religion and politics (as that is the context of the original poster's question). Complacent, then, in the sense of go-with-the-flow and follow-the-leader. Complacent in the sense of allowing dangerous men to take control because no one is willing to fight for rights and freedoms, and against corruption.
I was in Serbia when their President (or Prime Minister, or whatever, forgive my memory) was assassinated by gangsters. There was a police lock-down of the whole country, and there were police with balaclavas and huge machine guns all over the place. I had never seen so many police in my life. Cars were being pulled over for no other reason than that they were expensive, and therefore suspicious (of being owned and driven by gangsters).
Two things: 1) How did the gangsters get so powerful in the first place? Complacency. 2) How did the police turn the country into a police-state so quickly? Complacency.
Nobody (that's the sense I got, anyway) in the country seemed to think that there was much wrong with this situation. It was just business as usual. The big men who run the country fighting their fights, and it's annoying to the common person, but there's nothing you can do about it. That's what I mean by complacency. Sure they can be nationalistic, but even that is just another superstition, and leads to yet more political complacency. Look at the war in Serbia in the 90s. Same thing. A bunch of thugs take over, start a war, and all the people either go along with it, or do nothing to stop it.
I saw more political complacency in Central and Eastern Europe (and Russia) than I could ever have imagined previously. It was a bit of a culture shock. I don't think I'm over-estimating it.
To be sure, there is a good measure of political complacency wherever you go, Western Europe, North America, everywhere. But it was particularly bad in formerly-Communist countries than in long-Democratic ones. That experience is where my prediction came from. The Central European countries (I guess Serbia is sort of half-Central half-Eastern) are at least more closely allied with Western ideals, and have stronger economic and political ties to the West, and so I believe will be less vulnerable to religion and superstition (and authoritarian thugs).
Apathy is not the same as complacency. Apathy is "I don't care, no matter what's happening", complacency is "it's all good, no matter what's happening." In some ways, complacency is more dangerous than apathy. You can't get an apathetic person to join your holy war, whereas a complacent person is all too likely to become an enthusiastic participant.
Nationalism is both a superstition (of sorts), and relies heavily on a politically complacent population to bring into power. This is exactly the kind of thing I meant when I made my comment originally.
Not only do they have a much more powerful mafia than western countries, but there is far more corruption in the government as well. Bribes are commonplace. Not just bribes between powerful people, hidden away in their high offices, but bribes at the lowest levels. To get some paperwork done, to escape from a traffic violation, to open a business, to keep a business running, etc. etc. Bribe him, bribe her, bribe that other guy, bribe this guy so he can pass on a bribe to the other guy, etc.
People are complacent with this situation of all-pervading corruption. It is normal to them. There is no sense of bringing corrupt officials, high or low, to any sort of justice. Things are the way they are, and there's nothing anyone can do to change it; might as well go along with it. That's complacency.
Gangsters are accepted not as criminals, but as part of the social fabric. Young men aspire to be rich gangsters. Women flock to gangsters in search of a sugar daddy. Police are bribed by gangsters and protect them. The police themselves act as gangsters in many ways. Even so-called 'business' men act like gangsters. They are not looking to bring some great new product or service to the people, they are looking for ways to scam people, cheat suppliers and customers, eliminate competition to enjoy monopoly, etc.
Organized crime and corruption permeates the whole society. It is much worse than western countries.
True, but they are still superstitious. Psychics, tarot cards, fortune telling, racism, nationalism, conspiracy theories, aliens, lots of stupid beliefs. If you are still living there, ask around (not just your close friends, who are more likely to be like you than the general population). I'm sure you'll find plenty of superstition.
Not in the same way as Americans, but in their own way, I would say, yes, they are waiting around to be taken advantage of. They are not taking things into their own hands to change their countries for the better. They are complacent. Let things go as they go, and go along with the flow. Only the crooks seem to be seizing power, not the good people. The good people are just waiting around to be taken advantage of by the crooks.
(I'm not talking of everyone, mind you. I know lots of people there who are genuinely ambitious in their own ways, and seek to make things better. But as a whole, I think the societies in Eastern Europe are quite complacent in the way I describe. I genuinely like the people and places I visited. I'm only highlighting the negatives because I think they should be addressed, and without addressing them, the people are vulnerable to being taken over by thugs.)
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OP:
I doubt you will see anything dramatic. Religion might change at single-digit per generation rates but that is all. In 100 years, or five generations, you might see more European countries where non-theists outnumber theists.
On the other hand, 100 years is a very long time in the modern world. If the world becomes more prosperous overall I would expect to see a decline in religion. If there is a major war (like WW3) then you might see a revival. Third world nations will probably remain highly religious unless they can pull out of poverty and the sway of Islam/Catholicism.
Really it is tough to predict though. In America I can see that atheism might have a major resurgence, especially if a strong organization can emerge to take the lead. But as we all know organizing atheists is like herding cats.
Everything makes more sense now that I've stopped believing.
I was under the impression that a generation was widely considered to be thirty years, not twenty. If they are twenty years, then my proposition of 5 to 6 generations changes to 8 to 9 generations.
Enlightened Atheist, Gaming God.
*shrug* I tried to look it up just now and was unable to find a consistent number. Somewhere between 20-30 years. The average length of a generation in the U.S. is currently 25 years, shorter in some countries, longer in others. I doubt it changed either of our posts enough to matter.
(Edit: I wonder if generations are shorter in religions with high procreation, like Mormanism?)
Everything makes more sense now that I've stopped believing.
I'm not sure either, but I figured I should properly define the time period I was talking of to avoid confusion.
Enlightened Atheist, Gaming God.
As religion is as common as the use of fire and weapons of conflict it is unclear just what could cause it to suddenly disappear. When you talk about it all going away in a century that is 1/60th of the known history of religion. That is fast. Greater changes have happened faster such as birth rate in the industrial revolution.
I could hope, perhaps we could all hope, people will realize the value of religion is near zero in comparison to all pre-modern times. Value in the sense of what to pray for in the sense of divine intervention. A couple centuries ago and all the way back in known history a couple would have six children of which their best expectation was that two would survive to marry. That is a lot of praying with the failure of prayer the odds on favorite in a manner that dwarfs not winning the lottery. And it would happen that many times to every family. It is thankfully the very rare family today that needs to pray against 5:2 odds on any medical condition.
Rare is like rare in cancer not rare is in the guaranteed measles, chicken pox and the all time favorite smallpox as well as mumps, pneumonia and who knows what else that were constant threats of imminent death.
Perhaps we can hope it is only a matter of time before people get a sense of perspective on this prayer thing. With that perspective should come the realization, why bother? With that should come disinterest.
But keep in mind the purpose of ORGANIZED religion is to put food on the table of its ministers and priests. It is a career field. The Catholics are getting the worst of it in that regard. It is no longer a rewarding career. People are staying away from it in droves. The protestants should be feeling the same pinch as fewer people "believe" and there are fewer donations and the salaries for ministers declines. It dies out as a career.
Although as wacko, people with that urge to "help" people can make a much better living with all the crank businesses like life coach. There are a whole mess of new jobs that really do nothing but massage the customer but require "people skills" that pay better than minister and are otherwise free unlike priests. This kind of person can even make a living counseling UFO abductees these days.
So if it is going to disappear it is not going to do so because of more people like us. Nor is it going to disappear for lack of interest. It can disappear by a diversity of services that are unrelated to religion which are ways to make a living. Diversifying the roles of the witch doctor class into specializations soaks up most of the interest in religion.
In the ideal, if all the counseling and comforting and ceremonial functions are in other specialities, then there is little left for the core functions of a priest like sacrificing bullocks.
Jews stole the land. The owners want it back. That is all anyone needs to know about Israel. That is all there is to know about Israel.
www.ussliberty.org
www.giwersworld.org/made-in-alexandria/index.html
www.giwersworld.org/00_files/zion-hit-points.phtml
Good points, I think, Nony. Maybe an interesting tack we could collectively take is to publicize how there's less and less money to be made in preaching. Just make it well-known in the public that if you're an up-and-coming young person looking for something to do, don't bother with preaching.
It would have a delayed effect, but it might be significant if such a public sentiment were to become popular. With fewer preachers who are inherently *motivated* to convert and keep people, there would be less and less cohesive congregations over the years.
Unfortunately, there are always denominations that are fast-growing due to their message and the relevance of the times. Look at the rise of megachurches, for example. *Somebody's* going to tap in to the market demand, as long as it's there, and *those* will be the ones to make loads of money. We may be able to target specific denominations, such as Anglicans or Catholics, or whatever, but somewhere someone will be making a living off of other people's faith.
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If I might add, career choices are made when people are young and idealistic. They want to help. Making money is not a high criteria. But a comfortable life for the family is as well as the cost of educating their 2.05 children these days. They owe a decent life to their children not to their own comfort. It is also true and is something most people realize in their early to mid 20s so it is also an honest statement that will be confirmed even when talking to preachers.
Consider the US is the last of the seriously religious advanced countries in the world. Yes we have the rich who have financed very expensive churches. The rich showing to their fellow rich. But in this very free country with constitutional protection of religious expression and an abiding faith in the right to private property you have to drive through an illegal immigrant ghetto to find expressions of religion on front lawns. It is already highly compartmentalized.
I have watched the megachurches and such over the decades and the number of their members remain constant. Over generations their numbers would increase if it were a permanent thing. Rather it is a phase people go through.
The more money those people make the quicker they are exposed as frauds. Wish them luck and success. It works in our favor.
Jews stole the land. The owners want it back. That is all anyone needs to know about Israel. That is all there is to know about Israel.
www.ussliberty.org
www.giwersworld.org/made-in-alexandria/index.html
www.giwersworld.org/00_files/zion-hit-points.phtml