Why Pascal's Wager Sucks

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Why Pascal's Wager Sucks

A friend forwarded a message received from a xian attempting to use Pascal's Wager. The reply is classic.

 

The message:

Quote:

Someday, you'll understand. I feel sorry for you. Just promise me one thing, IF you were to hypothetically end up burning in hell or something, don't curse the religious for not saving you int time. Just consider that if my beliefs are wrong, so what, I'm worm food or whatever, no big loss. But if you're wrong, you're screwed. But you still have tons of chances to get it. Believe it or not, God loves you and when you meet your maker, you'll remember this and regret not taking it seriously. Good luck on your road of life, maybe our paths will cross someday.

My friend's reply:

Quote:


Hey, Bud! Thanks for your thoughts. When you sent your notice of pity, it would have been a lot more helpful had you mentioned which God I should avoid being screwed by.

There’s Allah whom the Muslim vehemently deny is triune; who say that Jesus is just a prophet, who say your Bible has been corrupted and so on. They give evidence from ancient history, science, archeology, Greek and Hebrew, Christian scholars, the early church fathers and the Bible itself to support their claim.

www.answering-christianity.com
www.muslim-responses.com
http://www.islam-guide.com

Or, how about the Jews. They say that Jesus at best was a good (if not problematic) Jewish Rabbi, but not the Messiah and certainly not God. They give evidence from ancient history, science, archeology, Greek and Hebrew, Christian scholars, the early church fathers and the Bible itself to support their claim.

www.jewsforjudaism.org
www.messiahtruth.com

Or, how about the Mormons who say that there are a multitude of gods and we can become one through acts like believing in their holy books and that Joseph Smith was a prophet of God. They give evidence from ancient history, science, archeology, Greek and Hebrew, Christian scholars, the early church fathers and the Bible itself to support their claim.

www.farms.byu.edu
www.fairlds.org

Or, how about the Jehovah’s witnesses who deny the trinity also. They say that Jesus was just a man and that the holy spirit is Jehovah’s active force. They say he is not omnipresent, that we are annihilated and not condemned to Hell and that Jesus has already come secretly. They give evidence from ancient history, science, archeology, Greek and Hebrew, Christian scholars, the early church fathers and the Bible itself to support their claim.

www.elihubooks.com
www.jehovah.to/index.htm

Even the Roman Catholic Church, who while saying they have the same God as you, say also that you can by God’s grace (through the sacraments and other good works) earn salvation. They believe such go to Purgatory when they die and one should do nearly every act of worship toward Mary that you do to Jesus, just don’t call it worship. They give evidence from ancient history, science, archeology, Greek and Hebrew, Christian scholars, the early church fathers and the Bible itself to support their claim.

www.catholic.com
www.catholicapologetics.org
www.envoymagazine.com

It seems partner that “god” has “left you without a witness.” Anyway you slice it, you are just as screwed as I am! But don’t worry! Look at these passages:

Deuteronomy 20:10-17 "When you draw near a city to fight against it, offer terms of peace to it. And if its answer to you is peace and it opens to you, then all the people who are found in it shall do forced labour for you and shall serve you. But if it makes no peace with you, but makes war against you, then you shall besiege it; and when the Lord your God gives it into your hand you shall put all its male to the sword, but the women and the little ones, the cattle, and everything else in the city, all its spoil, you shall take as booty for yourself; and you shall enjoy the spoil of your enemy, which the Lord God has given to you. Thus you shall do to all the cities which are far from you, which are not cities of the nations here. In the cities of these people that the Lord your God gives you an inheritance, you shall save alive nothing that breathes but you shall utterly destroy them, the Hittites and the Amoriotes, the Canaanites and the Jebusites, as the Lord your God has commanded."

Deuteronomy 7:2 "and when the Lord your God gives then [the enemies] over to you, and you defeat them; then you must utterly destroy them; you shall make no covenant with them, and show no mercy to them..."

Numbers 31:7, 17 They warred against Midian, as the Lord commanded Moses, and slew every male…[Moses said to them] "... Now therefore kill every male among the little ones, and kill every woman who has known a man by lying with him..."

I Samuel 15:1-3 And Samuel said to Saul, "The LORD sent me to anoint you king over his people Israel; now therefore hearken to the words of the LORD. Thus says the LORD of hosts, `I will punish what Am'alek did to Israel in opposing them on the way, when they came up out of Egypt. Now go and smite Am'alek, and utterly destroy all that they have; do not spare them, but kill both man and woman, infant and suckling, ox and sheep, camel and ass.'"

II Kings 2:23-24 He [Elisha] went up from there to Bethel; and while he was going up on the way, some small boys came out of the city and jeered at him, saying, "Go up, you baldhead! Go up, you baldhead!" And he turned around and when he saw them, he cursed them in the name of the Lord. And two she-bears came out from the woods and tore forty-two of the boys.

Looks like we didn’t have to worry about God being all that loving after all.

 

I hope that the Pascal Wagerer felt that bitch slap!

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LoveThyNeighbour wrote:If

LoveThyNeighbour wrote:

If the theist is right, the theist goes to heaven and the atheist to hell.

If the Atheist is right, both the theist and the atheist cease to exist, regardless of what you believe.

 

Atheists have no rational answer to this argument.

Do you even know what you're talking about?  Do you even know why Pascal's Wager 'sucks'?  First, it fails to take into account the fact that people believe in more than one god and more than one idea of an afterlife.  Simply, if the theist is correct she must be a certain kind of theist and that is something that's impossible to determine.  The sheer amount of blind chance... wait!  Why don't you go learn something about logic?  This is not a difficult concept.  And before you post again (I've read your other posts), try to think or read something beforehand.


 

BigUniverse wrote,

"Well the things that happen less often are more likely to be the result of the supper natural. A thing like loosing my keys in the morning is not likely supper natural, but finding a thousand dollars or meeting a celebrity might be."


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LoveThyNeighbour wrote:If

LoveThyNeighbour wrote:

Atheists have no rational answer to this argument.

And you, being a theist, do?

Let's hear it.

People who think there is something they refer to as god don't ask enough questions.


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LoveThyNeighbour wrote:If

LoveThyNeighbour wrote:

If the theist is right, the theist goes to heaven and the atheist to hell.

If the Atheist is right, both the theist and the atheist cease to exist, regardless of what you believe.

 

Atheists have no rational answer to this argument.

 

If the Christian of whatever denomination is right the Christian goes to Heaven and the Atheist to hell.

If the Moslem is right both the Christian and Atheist go to hell.

If the Universalist is right both the Christian and Atheist go to heaven.

If the Hindu or Buddhist  is right both are reincarnated in some fashion

If the Pastafarian is right whether the Christian and Atheist go to Heaven or Antarctica depends on their behavior

If the Scientologist is right... Fuck that I have no clue ehat they say about it and there's no way that shit's right so forget it.

 

Get the idea?

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LoveThyNeighbour wrote:If

LoveThyNeighbour wrote:

If the theist is right, the theist goes to heaven and the atheist to hell.

If the Atheist is right, both the theist and the atheist cease to exist, regardless of what you believe.

If the Theist is right, theists will be spending eternity with a someone that encourages people to lie to themselves and tortures athiests just for being honest about what they think. Therefore, he can't be such great person to have to live with forever, can he?

If there does happen to be an afterlife, wouldn't you want to spend it with people that are honest(atheist/agnostic) or people that lie about believing(suckers for Pascal's wager/Divine ass-kissers)?

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Thomathy

Thomathy wrote:

LoveThyNeighbour wrote:

If the theist is right, the theist goes to heaven and the atheist to hell.

If the Atheist is right, both the theist and the atheist cease to exist, regardless of what you believe.

 

Atheists have no rational answer to this argument.

Do you even know what you're talking about?  Do you even know why Pascal's Wager 'sucks'?  First, it fails to take into account the fact that people believe in more than one god and more than one idea of an afterlife.  Simply, if the theist is correct she must be a certain kind of theist and that is something that's impossible to determine.  The sheer amount of blind chance... wait!  Why don't you go learn something about logic?  This is not a difficult concept.  And before you post again (I've read your other posts), try to think or read something beforehand.


 

 

The pagan cults mentioned in the OP are false! The death of Jesus is the most historically proven event in the history of mankind! The things that I have experienced in my life and what God has told me through dreams are enough to blow away any doubt.

I'm an agnostic atheist who thinks you should love your neughbour.


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LoveThyNeighbour wrote:The

LoveThyNeighbour wrote:
The pagan cults mentioned in the OP are false!
By what measure of truth?  Are they any less false than Christianity?

Quote:
The death of Jesus is the most historically proven event in the history of mankind!
That's a blatant lie and patantly false.

Quote:
The things that I have experienced in my life and what God has told me through dreams are enough to blow away any doubt.
Perhaps they're enough to blow away your doubt, but why should I believe your personal experience?  That does not count as evidence.  The fact is that Pascal's Wager is an example of very poorly thought out logic.  It simply fails.

BigUniverse wrote,

"Well the things that happen less often are more likely to be the result of the supper natural. A thing like loosing my keys in the morning is not likely supper natural, but finding a thousand dollars or meeting a celebrity might be."


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Thomathy

Thomathy wrote:

LoveThyNeighbour wrote:
The pagan cults mentioned in the OP are false!
By what measure of truth?  Are they any less false than Christianity?

Quote:
The death of Jesus is the most historically proven event in the history of mankind!
That's a blatant lie and patantly false.

Quote:
The things that I have experienced in my life and what God has told me through dreams are enough to blow away any doubt.
Perhaps they're enough to blow away your doubt, but why should I believe your personal experience?  That does not count as evidence.  The fact is that Pascal's Wager is an example of very poorly thought out logic.  It simply fails.

I've seen dead people come back to life. Explain that.

 

Oh, and because you don't listen to the wisdom Pascal's Wager has, you will be well remembered on Judgement Day...

I'm an agnostic atheist who thinks you should love your neughbour.


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LoveThyNeighbour wrote:I've

LoveThyNeighbour wrote:
I've seen dead people come back to life. Explain that.
You show me proof because that claim is incredible and as far as I know and has been medically proven, people do not come back to life.  In fact, it is likely that you cannot present me with any proof and so I expect I will have to assume you are lying because I have evidence that would serve to refute your extraordinary claim.

Quote:
Oh, and because you don't listen to the wisdom Pascal's Wager has, you will be well remembered on Judgement Day...
That is a threat.  An empty one, of course.  I'm not afraid of being judged by your impossible and imaginary sky daddy.

By the way, does it smell like troll in here to anyone else?

BigUniverse wrote,

"Well the things that happen less often are more likely to be the result of the supper natural. A thing like loosing my keys in the morning is not likely supper natural, but finding a thousand dollars or meeting a celebrity might be."


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LoveThyNeighbour wrote:The

LoveThyNeighbour wrote:
The death of Jesus is the most historically proven event in the history of mankind!

Is that why outside the bible there's absolutely no evidence to his existance?  Is that why outside the bible the only mentions of him are based on the bible (which makes it technically not outside the bible), or of the worshippers (of whome there is no doubt existed)?

Don't even think of trying to tell me hte bible is historical either, it contradicts history and evidence left right and center.

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If someone claims they saw a

If someone claims they saw a person rise from the dead, they are either lying or psychotic.


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MattShizzle wrote:If someone

MattShizzle wrote:

If someone claims they saw a person rise from the dead, they are either lying or psychotic.

During Missionary in Africa, I witnessed a resurrection with my very eyes! There had been no pulse in the poor child, but God made the child wake to life again. No one present had any explanation at all for what happened other than that God willed it.

I'm an agnostic atheist who thinks you should love your neughbour.


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LoveThyNeighbour" wrote:I've

LoveThyNeighbour" wrote:

I've seen dead people come back to life. Explain that.

OK, but you will have to provide a detailed description of exactly what you saw, photos, etc, for us to even start to explain what you saw.

Including proof that the person was actually dead, ie, either with gross physical injury, or showed no vital signs whatever, for at least. say 10 minutes, when hooked up to working medical equipment. Or at the very least certification after examination by a qualified medically-trained person.

Certainly that sort of claim cannot simply be accepted on face value.

Favorite oxymorons: Gospel Truth, Rational Supernaturalist, Business Ethics, Christian Morality

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My Use of Pascal's Wager

Personally, I don't use Pascal's Wager in this manner. I actually don't like using it at all. I don't agree with "Pascal's answer." If I, as a Christian, am incorrect, I should be pitied for wasting my life believing something that is false. The basis for "choosing" what you believe is true should not be directed by anything other than truth (or logic, which leads to truth).

However I do find that I sometimes invoke Pascal's Wager in a different way. Often times, the person with whom I am having the conversation, recognizes it and immediately withdraws from the question [which is another reason why I don't like using it]. People on whom I tend to use this version of Pascal's Wager are people who (seem like they) do not want to consider the possibility that Christianity (or any religion) is right. For them, my question intends to spark in them the interest to seek out the truth. For instance, I would try and phrase it in this way: You should care about whether Christianty's claims are true, because if they are, you will have to answer to God for the offenses (sins) that you have committed against Him. But also, if these claims are true, there is a means by which God will forgive your offenses, through the death and resurrection of Jesus Christ. However, if the alternative is true, that Christianity's claims are not true, then you can (at the very least) check Christianity off your list of things that may be true.

If this same question were posed back on me, I would have a reply, because I have examined not only the claims of Christianity, but also those of other religions and philosophies. So you see, the point of my use of Pascal''s Wager is only to bring interest to the conversation, not to help you choose Christianity over anything else.

So I ask, how do people feel about this use of Pascal's Wager?


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LoveThyNeighbour

LoveThyNeighbour wrote:

MattShizzle wrote:

If someone claims they saw a person rise from the dead, they are either lying or psychotic.

During Missionary in Africa, I witnessed a resurrection with my very eyes! There had been no pulse in the poor child, but God made the child wake to life again. No one present had any explanation at all for what happened other than that God willed it.

That is a very weak argument. How long was the continuous period over which a pulse could not be found? You do realize that under some conditions heart-beat can be so weak that a pulse is not easily detectable without medical equipment.

In any case, what about this incident actually points to the intervention of a God? Did he leave his printed card?

Favorite oxymorons: Gospel Truth, Rational Supernaturalist, Business Ethics, Christian Morality

"Theology is now little more than a branch of human ignorance. Indeed, it is ignorance with wings." - Sam Harris

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And assuming it was A god,

And assuming it was A god, how do you know it wasn't, for example, the Flying Spaghetti Monster?


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look2logic wrote:how do

look2logic wrote:
how do people feel about this use of Pascal's Wager?

 It has many problems.

Pascal's Wager
1. Either God exists, or he does not.
2. You can either believe or not believe.
3. If one believes, he stands to gain all if God exists; If God does not exist, he loses nothing.
4. Therefore, it is better to believe.

1. What is "god"? What evidence is there for "god"?  Unless there is evidence of its existence, to claim that 'god' exists is a naked assertion, a presupposition.
2. Believe in what? As far as belief goes, one can believe whatever one is able to imagine. Imagining 'god' does not compel it into existence. I can not believe 'god' actually exists outside the imagination of theists because it does not exhibit any evidence of itself.
3. Not knowing what "god" is, I wouldn't know if I'd gain anything. The claim is that I will gain all if I believe; but what is 'all'? All of what?
4. No conclusion can be made from Pascal's Wager.

 

People who think there is something they refer to as god don't ask enough questions.


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LoveThyNeighbour wrote:The

LoveThyNeighbour wrote:
The death of Jesus is the most historically proven event in the history of mankind!

Our revels now are ended. These our actors, | As I foretold you, were all spirits, and | Are melted into air, into thin air; | And, like the baseless fabric of this vision, | The cloud-capped towers, the gorgeous palaces, | The solemn temples, the great globe itself, - Yea, all which it inherit, shall dissolve, | And, like this insubstantial pageant faded, | Leave not a rack behind. We are such stuff | As dreams are made on, and our little life | Is rounded with a sleep. - Shakespeare


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It would be much more

It would be much more accurate to say that the "Death of Jesus" is the LEAST well established of all such purported events in the history of mankind, that are widely believed and considered extremely significant...

Favorite oxymorons: Gospel Truth, Rational Supernaturalist, Business Ethics, Christian Morality

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The path to Truth lies via careful study of reality, not the dreams of our fallible minds - me

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Hi, it's me Jesus,

Hi, it's me Jesus, resurrected again, just as you all ....  


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The existence of God, and

The existence of God, and his intentions, are not determinable with any high degree of confidence, otherwise Pascal's Wager would not be an issue.

There is no way to know the nature of any hypothetical such beings, or if they even exist, or what are their demands of us, or whether any communications attributed to them can be taken at face value - there is no way we could know they are not just playing with us, lying to us, etc. The ideas of 'none of the above', ie no Gods, is the most plausible in the absence of any evidence of a God.

So the idea of being able to assert any probabilities to base a decision on in this Wager, are purest fantasy.

Favorite oxymorons: Gospel Truth, Rational Supernaturalist, Business Ethics, Christian Morality

"Theology is now little more than a branch of human ignorance. Indeed, it is ignorance with wings." - Sam Harris

The path to Truth lies via careful study of reality, not the dreams of our fallible minds - me

From the sublime to the ridiculous: Science -> Philosophy -> Theology


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 .... g-AWE-d ....    

 .... g-AWE-d ....    


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My Pascal's Wager

aiia,

Your reply is confusing. You quote my response, however I don't believe you even read it; at least it doesn't appear to be the case. I come to this conclusion because I not only agree with all of your points, but stated some of them explicitly. My point was that my use of Pascal's Wager is not to reach ANY conclusion at all, but to spark interest in the conversation. This is actually quite the opposite of reaching a conclusion; instead I am asking them to reconsider their conclusion in light of all the possibilities (including my own). Many people I talk to seem dis-interested in knowing or seeking after the truth. In many ways they are just as irrational and dogmatic as others claim religious fundamentalists are, because they blindly, unquestioningly tout their worldview. The purpose of my use of Pascal's Wager is to urge them that such dogmatic belief (or inaction for the pursuit of truth) would be foolishness if Christianity's claims were true (or anyone else's for that matter).

If, in fact, the person with whom I shared this version of Pascal's Wager responds with arguments for his or her own worldview, and perhaps against others', then I know that I have incorrectly judged the individual's stance. This individual needed no exhortation to the pursuit of truth, and consequently needed no posing of Pascal's Wager in any form or fashion. However you might be surprised how little this occurs. In fact most of the people I meet seem like they don't even care if they are right or wrong. And it is for these people that I employ my version of Pascal's Wager.

With this in mind, do people think this use of Pascal's Wager "sucks" or is absurd?

 


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Can't you read dumbass? It's

Can't you read dumbass? It's a false dichotomy. Christianity and Atheism aren't the only choices and most religions consider picking the wrong religion just as bad or even worse than atheism.

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Wagner sucks ...

Wagner sucks ...


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Seems to me that to take the

Seems to me that to take the scenario of Pascal's Wager at all seriously, you have to take Christianity seriously as a worthy world-view.

Since after decades of considering the issues around religious belief, the plausibility of the claims, even whether they have value in a metaphorical rather than a literal sense, I see so little going for it that I personally see it as absurd and more than a touch intellectually dishonest. My only real interest is in understanding the psychology and thought processes that allow people to entertain such things.

The mindset that the existence of God and even the 'truth' of Christianity is so manifest and beyond serious question seems to me to be so antithetical to an honest search for truth, a blindness to the reality that this is just one world-view among many, and a somewhat outdated one at that, in the light of modern discoveries in so many fields... < shakes head sadly >

Favorite oxymorons: Gospel Truth, Rational Supernaturalist, Business Ethics, Christian Morality

"Theology is now little more than a branch of human ignorance. Indeed, it is ignorance with wings." - Sam Harris

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Can you read...sir?

I hope your reply wasn't to me, Matt. If you cared to read both my responses, you would realize I never made a false dichotomy. Almost every time I mentioned Christianity, I added "or any other religion for that matter." In simpler words, my version of Pascal's Wager says, if my religious claims are true, then such-and-such is true. And if it is wrong, then you have one less option to consider. How on earth is that a false dichotomy? Either I'm right, or something else is.

Not only that, but throwing around vulgar comments like "dumbass" (especially where your assertion is clearly inccrrect) does not make you sound any smarter. On the contrary, it makes your IQ appear to be on par with the size of your vocabulary--i.e. very small.


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BobSpence1

BobSpence1 wrote:

LoveThyNeighbour wrote:

MattShizzle wrote:

If someone claims they saw a person rise from the dead, they are either lying or psychotic.

During Missionary in Africa, I witnessed a resurrection with my very eyes! There had been no pulse in the poor child, but God made the child wake to life again. No one present had any explanation at all for what happened other than that God willed it.

That is a very weak argument. How long was the continuous period over which a pulse could not be found? You do realize that under some conditions heart-beat can be so weak that a pulse is not easily detectable without medical equipment.

In any case, what about this incident actually points to the intervention of a God? Did he leave his printed card?

God has told me so during prayer. I can't be at fault simply because you choose not to listen to him.

I'm an agnostic atheist who thinks you should love your neughbour.


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look2logic wrote:aiia,Your

look2logic wrote:

aiia,

Your reply is confusing. You quote my response, however I don't believe you even read it; at least it doesn't appear to be the case. I come to this conclusion because I not only agree with all of your points, but stated some of them explicitly. My point was that my use of Pascal's Wager is not to reach ANY conclusion at all, but to spark interest in the conversation. This is actually quite the opposite of reaching a conclusion; instead I am asking them to reconsider their conclusion in light of all the possibilities (including my own). Many people I talk to seem dis-interested in knowing or seeking after the truth. In many ways they are just as irrational and dogmatic as others claim religious fundamentalists are, because they blindly, unquestioningly tout their worldview. The purpose of my use of Pascal's Wager is to urge them that such dogmatic belief (or inaction for the pursuit of truth) would be foolishness if Christianity's claims were true (or anyone else's for that matter).

If, in fact, the person with whom I shared this version of Pascal's Wager responds with arguments for his or her own worldview, and perhaps against others', then I know that I have incorrectly judged the individual's stance. This individual needed no exhortation to the pursuit of truth, and consequently needed no posing of Pascal's Wager in any form or fashion. However you might be surprised how little this occurs. In fact most of the people I meet seem like they don't even care if they are right or wrong. And it is for these people that I employ my version of Pascal's Wager.

With this in mind, do people think this use of Pascal's Wager "sucks" or is absurd?

 

Sorry look2logic. I know what you posted, I was merely (re)listing the problems to emphasize (for theists) why it makes a useless argument, not only for believing in a 'god' but also for the existence of 'god' and I think Pascal's Wager is absurd; its éclat is exaggerated and actually discussing the conclusion is a waste of time until the theist can prove 'god'.

 

People who think there is something they refer to as god don't ask enough questions.


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LoveThyNeighbour wrote:God

LoveThyNeighbour wrote:

God has told me so during prayer. I can't be at fault simply because you choose not to listen to him.

LoveThyNeighbour

I am very inerested in how this is done. Would you care to explain this? How was you "told"? How do I "listen"? Listen to what?

People who think there is something they refer to as god don't ask enough questions.


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aiia wrote:LoveThyNeighbour

aiia wrote:

LoveThyNeighbour wrote:

God has told me so during prayer. I can't be at fault simply because you choose not to listen to him.

LoveThyNeighbour

I am very inerested in how this is done. Would you care to explain this?

You've never prayed before? You should try it some time, God is listening in all His Glory.

I'm an agnostic atheist who thinks you should love your neughbour.


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LoveThyNeighbour

LoveThyNeighbour wrote:

 

You've never prayed before? You should try it some time, God is listening in all His Glory.

 

But would you care to explain this? How was you "told"? How do I "listen"? Listen to what?

People who think there is something they refer to as god don't ask enough questions.


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aiia wrote:LoveThyNeighbour

aiia wrote:

LoveThyNeighbour wrote:

 

You've never prayed before? You should try it some time, God is listening in all His Glory.

 

But would you care to explain this? How was you "told"? How do I "listen"? Listen to what?

Surrender yourself to Jesus... God is all around us, so the easiest way is to search Within Yourself...

I'm an agnostic atheist who thinks you should love your neughbour.


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LoveThyNeighbour wrote:aiia

LoveThyNeighbour wrote:

Surrender yourself to Jesus... God is all around us, so the easiest way is to search Within Yourself...

You haven't responed to my question. Is there a problem?

And "surrender to jesus"? What is that all about? 

People who think there is something they refer to as god don't ask enough questions.


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aiia wrote:You haven't

aiia wrote:

You haven't responed to my question. Is there a problem?

I have answered, you just don't want to listen. Typical atheism.

I'm an agnostic atheist who thinks you should love your neughbour.


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LoveThyNeighbour wrote:aiia

LoveThyNeighbour wrote:

aiia wrote:

You haven't responed to my question. Is there a problem?

I have answered, you just don't want to listen. Typical atheism.

Lying is a sin isn't it?

By the way, I don't think you love your neighbors.

People who think there is something they refer to as god don't ask enough questions.


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aiia's response

So you would disagree with the use of any version of Pascal's Wager? Even if the point of the question is not to quell doubts (reaching conclusions on faulty reasoning), but to raise them (even if their eventual conclusion opposes mine)?

I don't agree, obviously. I think that any sort of question that causes people to think (or re-think) about their beliefs (and particularly think of arguments, reasons, and evidence for their beliefs) is a worthwhile question. However, I did simply want to hear some people's opinions regarding my version of Pascal's Wager. Fair enough, aiia. Thank you for the response!


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Pascal's Wager has no

Pascal's Wager has no validity as an logic-based argument, since it is based on a mountain poorly justified assumptions, which the OP and DG's link pointed out in exquisite detail.

It is a proselytising argument, propaganda, no more worthy of taking seriously than a political 'vote for me' advertisement.

 

Favorite oxymorons: Gospel Truth, Rational Supernaturalist, Business Ethics, Christian Morality

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The task of religion is

The task of religion is always to affect the way one lives his or her life on the planet Earth.

Many people do not make a religious commitment because they are waiting for an answer.  But chances are, the answer is not going to just come to you.   There will be many things that we will never be able to prove.  At some point, you HAVE to make a leap of faith. 

So make that leap of faith because it is going to affect the way that you live.  Do not wait until the answers come to you because you'll probably be dead before they do.... and you'll have died not living your life like you could have lived it. 

What do you have to lose? 

 


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Ghost wrote:The task of

Ghost wrote:
The task of religion is always to affect the way one lives his or her life on the planet Earth.

Many people do not make a religious commitment because they are waiting for an answer.  But chances are, the answer is not going to just come to you.   There will be many things that we will never be able to prove.  At some point, you HAVE to make a leap of faith. 

So make that leap of faith because it is going to affect the way that you live.  Do not wait until the answers come to you because you'll probably be dead before they do.... and you'll have died not living your life like you could have lived it. 

What do you have to lose?

In a thread where Pascal's Wager is torn apart in many and varied ways, you just plainly repost it?

I dumped religion because I got answeres. Being without religion has vastly and positively improved my life. I never had to make any leap of faith to get to that point, instead being able to rely in reason and evidence. Thus I have a very great deal to lose.

 

"Anyone can repress a woman, but you need 'dictated' scriptures to feel you're really right in repressing her. In the same way, homophobes thrive everywhere. But you must feel you've got scripture on your side to come up with the tedious 'Adam and Eve not Adam and Steve' style arguments instead of just recognising that some people are different." - Douglas Murray


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Ghost wrote:The task of

Ghost wrote:

The task of religion is always to affect the way one lives his or her life on the planet Earth.

Many people do not make a religious commitment because they are waiting for an answer.  But chances are, the answer is not going to just come to you.   There will be many things that we will never be able to prove.  At some point, you HAVE to make a leap of faith. 

So make that leap of faith because it is going to affect the way that you live.  Do not wait until the answers come to you because you'll probably be dead before they do.... and you'll have died not living your life like you could have lived it. 

What do you have to lose? 

We do not need to PROVE things to assess the relative strength of all the available evidence, and that certainly does not point to God. No leap of faith required, just look at what the evidence seems to indicate. If we had to wait for PROOF that a given course of action was the only correct one , we would be perpetually in a paralysis of indecision.

Favorite oxymorons: Gospel Truth, Rational Supernaturalist, Business Ethics, Christian Morality

"Theology is now little more than a branch of human ignorance. Indeed, it is ignorance with wings." - Sam Harris

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Ghost wrote:The task of

Ghost wrote:

The task of religion is always to affect the way one lives his or her life on the planet Earth.

Many people do not make a religious commitment because they are waiting for an answer.  But chances are, the answer is not going to just come to you.   There will be many things that we will never be able to prove.  At some point, you HAVE to make a leap of faith. 

So make that leap of faith because it is going to affect the way that you live.  Do not wait until the answers come to you because you'll probably be dead before they do.... and you'll have died not living your life like you could have lived it. 

What do you have to lose? 

 

Nothing, hence why I live my life the way I do, enjoying every moment of it, trying new things, new experiences, and all without the associated guilt of sin and fear of god that is instilled by many religions around the world. I do not fear death at all, it's part of life, and in the end I lived my life the way I wanted to, not how the church or a priest or someone else wanted me to live it. I have my answers to life, I found them by living it, by learning, by using critical thinking skills. Why believe in some god that cannot be proven much like all the other gods, why bother with the christian god or the hindu gods or islamic god or any god, why not just live your life to the fullest within the laws of the land that you reside in. Try to change somone's life for the better if you can, influence your friends and co-workers to do good not for the fear of eternal punishment or the desire of a reward, but for the act of doing good towards others, and the simple joy that brings?

I cannot undrestand the desire to be a slave to a church or to other people's ideology which, when a bit of searching around you can find no evidence that their god or beliefs are correct or true?


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JillSwift wrote:In a thread

JillSwift wrote:

In a thread where Pascal's Wager is torn apart in many and varied ways, you just plainly repost it?

I'm just stating it differently.  I didn't see where anyone brought up the main tenet of it: that the goal of religion is to improve life RIGHT NOW.  Maybe someone brought it up but I don't feel like reading through a two year old thread.  My point is,  I never interpreted the wager as having much to do with the afterlife.

Quote:
I dumped religion because I got answeres. Being without religion has vastly and positively improved my life. I never had to make any leap of faith to get to that point, instead being able to rely in reason and evidence. Thus I have a very great deal to lose.


I've met many atheists and they all come across as miserable human beings.  Watching Brian and Kelly on Nightline did very little to change my opinion.  Not that I'm making any universal claims here, just my experience.

Mind telling me what makes your life so great?  What do you do right now that religion would take away?

 


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Ghost wrote:I'm just stating

Ghost wrote:
I'm just stating it differently.  I didn't see where anyone brought up the main tenet of it: that the goal of religion is to improve life RIGHT NOW.  Maybe someone brought it up but I don't feel like reading through a two year old thread.  My point is,  I never interpreted the wager as having much to do with the afterlife.
What, you mean except for the part where Pascal mentions heaven and hell?

Ghost wrote:
I've met many atheists and they all come across as miserable human beings.  Watching Brian and Kelly on Nightline did very little to change my opinion.  Not that I'm making any universal claims here, just my experience.
No idea how you came away from that with the idea Brian and Kelly are 'miserable'. Heck, it looked to me that they both -  Kelly in particular - were having a bit of fun.

Ghost wrote:
Mind telling me what makes your life so great?  What do you do right now that religion would take away?
I like knowing things. Being a skeptic and science-minded brings me a great deal of joy. And from that skeptical and scientific mindset comes my atheism.

Were I to start beliving in made-up things like religions require, I'd have to leave that behind.

"Anyone can repress a woman, but you need 'dictated' scriptures to feel you're really right in repressing her. In the same way, homophobes thrive everywhere. But you must feel you've got scripture on your side to come up with the tedious 'Adam and Eve not Adam and Steve' style arguments instead of just recognising that some people are different." - Douglas Murray


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Ghost wrote:I'm just stating

Ghost wrote:
I'm just stating it differently.
 

Uuuuhhh, how is it different? It's still just a fear tactic based on a false dichotomy. 

Quote:
I didn't see where anyone brought up the main tenet of it: that the goal of religion is to improve life RIGHT NOW.
 

This has nothing to do with Pascal's Wager.

Quote:
Maybe someone brought it up but I don't feel like reading through a two year old thread.  My point is,  I never interpreted the wager as having much to do with the afterlife.

Well then, you interpreted it wrong, and you need to stop referring to it in your argument.

Quote:
I've met many atheists and they all come across as miserable human beings.  Watching Brian and Kelly on Nightline did very little to change my opinion. Not that I'm making any universal claims here, just my experience.
 

Argument from personal observations of people's moods?

Quote:
Mind telling me what makes your life so great?

I have friends. I have parents that love me. I have a car and a home. I'm majoring in physics at a prestigious research university. I already have at least two job offers waiting for me whenever I have more time, a sales representative for Vector Marketing or a tutor for WASLpass. Plus, I have access to numerous research opportunities as an undergraduate. I should be able to finish my first quarter with at least a 3.5 average. 

I've been to several countries. I've been to Seattle, Boston, New York City, Washington D.C., Los Angelos, San Francisco, Las Vegas, etc. I've eaten more kinds of food than most people eat in their entire lives. I've climbed mountains, rafted rivers, explored caves, hiked forests. I know how to play Chess and Go. I enjoy tennis, soccer, swimming, football, and more; albeit, I suck at most sports, but, heck, I can still enjoy it. I've done countless hours of voluntary community service with over a dozen non-profit organizations. 

I have a bright future ahead of me. I'm witty. I'm good at communicating. I'm optimistic. I've read the Bible, the Book of Mormon, part of L. Ron Hubbard's Fundamentals of Thought, a little bit of the Koran, I'm trying to get the Torah, and I'm intellectually enlightened enough to know that they're all full of shit.    

Quote:
What do you do right now that religion would take away?

Nothing, except my liberty.

Our revels now are ended. These our actors, | As I foretold you, were all spirits, and | Are melted into air, into thin air; | And, like the baseless fabric of this vision, | The cloud-capped towers, the gorgeous palaces, | The solemn temples, the great globe itself, - Yea, all which it inherit, shall dissolve, | And, like this insubstantial pageant faded, | Leave not a rack behind. We are such stuff | As dreams are made on, and our little life | Is rounded with a sleep. - Shakespeare


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Ghost wrote:I'm just stating

Edit: Dam, double post.

Our revels now are ended. These our actors, | As I foretold you, were all spirits, and | Are melted into air, into thin air; | And, like the baseless fabric of this vision, | The cloud-capped towers, the gorgeous palaces, | The solemn temples, the great globe itself, - Yea, all which it inherit, shall dissolve, | And, like this insubstantial pageant faded, | Leave not a rack behind. We are such stuff | As dreams are made on, and our little life | Is rounded with a sleep. - Shakespeare


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butterbattle wrote:This has

butterbattle wrote:

This has nothing to do with Pascal's Wager.

Yes it does.  Read it straight from the horse's mouth:

"Now, what harm will befall you in taking this side? You will be faithful, honest, humble, grateful, generous, a sincere friend, truthful. Certainly you will not have those poisonous pleasures, glory and luxury; but will you not have others? I will tell you that you will thereby gain in this life, and that, at each step you take on this road, you will see so great certainty of gain, so much nothingness in what you risk, that you will at last recognize that you have wagered for something certain and infinite, for which you have given nothing."

In other words, making that leap of faith will change the way you live IN THIS LIFE. 

 

Quote:
Argument from personal observations of people's moods?

I wouldn't even really call it an argument.  I'm not making any universal conclusions here.   Just my personal observations. 

Quote:
I have friends. I have parents that love me. I have a car and a home. I'm majoring in physics at a prestigious research university. I already have at least two job offers waiting for me whenever I have more time, a sales representative for Vector Marketing or a tutor for WASLpass. Plus, I have access to numerous research opportunities as an undergraduate. I should be able to finish my first quarter with at least a 3.5 average. 

I've been to several countries. I've been to Seattle, Boston, New York City, Washington D.C., Los Angelos, San Francisco, Las Vegas, etc. I've eaten more kinds of food than most people eat in their entire lives. I've climbed mountains, rafted rivers, explored caves, hiked forests. I know how to play Chess and Go. I enjoy tennis, soccer, swimming, football, and more; albeit, I suck at most sports, but, heck, I can still enjoy it. I've done countless hours of voluntary community service with over a dozen non-profit organizations. 

I have a bright future ahead of me. I'm witty. I'm good at communicating. I'm optimistic.

Perfect.  And God won't take any of those things away from you.  So you really have nothing to lose by making the leap of faith.  Pascal would argue that it would make things EVEN BETTER.  Once again, if you are waiting for an answer, it probably isn't going to come to you. 

In fact, how do you know your parents love you?  Maybe they are just using you and trying to mislead you.  You put your trust in your parents, and yet scientists can never place that under a microscope and define it in some law.  You are making a leap of faith.  And it is affecting the way you live.

Choose God.  It will pierce like a knife at first, but then it will heal.  You will not be sorry.


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I notice Ghostie fails to

I notice Ghostie fails to answer my post.

Ghostie wrote:
You put your trust in your parents, and yet scientists can never place that under a microscope and define it in some law.
Science can and has. "Evolutionary psychology" is the breanch of science that studies such things as love. Read up on it.

Re-read this thread, too. Pascal's wager is a bust, son.

"Anyone can repress a woman, but you need 'dictated' scriptures to feel you're really right in repressing her. In the same way, homophobes thrive everywhere. But you must feel you've got scripture on your side to come up with the tedious 'Adam and Eve not Adam and Steve' style arguments instead of just recognising that some people are different." - Douglas Murray


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JillSwift wrote:I notice

JillSwift wrote:

I notice Ghostie fails to answer my post.

The fact that you want me to answer your post tells me that you don't think it is a waste of time to be debating with me, which means that I am making points that you feel need to be disproved.  And you wouldn't feel that way unless they were compelling.  I thank you, darling.

Want to meet me for dinner?

Quote:
Science can and has. "Evolutionary psychology" is the breanch of science that studies such things as love. Read up on it.

I'm quite familiar with it and it has nothing to do with what I am talking about.   Evolutionary psychologists merely describe how human thought processes adapted to changing environments.

My premise was that emotions are not physiological mechanisms.  You can't be certain that your parents love you in the same way that you are certain of the laws of gravity or the laws of thermodynamics.  You are essentially making a WAGER.

And yes, there have been many who have attempted to describe things like "love", "anger", "desire", "sadness" in physical terms (they are known as "physicalists" and you should have brought that up if you wanted to contradict my position), but they fail miserably.


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Quote:Maybe they are just

Quote:
Maybe they are just using you and trying to mislead you.  You put your trust in your parents, and yet scientists can never place that under a microscope and define it in some law.  You are making a leap of faith.

Wow, I........*sigh*

Our revels now are ended. These our actors, | As I foretold you, were all spirits, and | Are melted into air, into thin air; | And, like the baseless fabric of this vision, | The cloud-capped towers, the gorgeous palaces, | The solemn temples, the great globe itself, - Yea, all which it inherit, shall dissolve, | And, like this insubstantial pageant faded, | Leave not a rack behind. We are such stuff | As dreams are made on, and our little life | Is rounded with a sleep. - Shakespeare


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Ghost, human emotions and

Ghost, human emotions and behaviour are very much an active and productive area of scientific research.

Obviously, microsopes aren't much use, but fMRI scanners are, and there are many kinds of tests run with groups of volunteers, using interviews, setting all kinds of tasks, games, etc, and sophisticated analysis of responses and comparison with other groups, other studies, fMRI results, etc.

Studies and interviews of individuals in a variety of life circumstances add more data points. All of this allows us to extract common features which filter out individual variations to get at some core facts about how emotions govern our thoughts and behaviour, while fMRI scans allow us to map the emotional responses to events in the various parts of the brain with ever greater precision and detail.

Of course the results of these studies have to be framed in very different terms to studies in physics, where we describe the regularities we find in the interactions of mass and energy by 'Laws'.

 

Studies of complex entities such as living organisms don't lend themselves to relatively simple mathematical expressions which can be enshrined in a Law. 

Science can in principle be applied to anything where we can make some sort of consistent observations of the subject. If the subject of study are experiences within a human mind, we listen to their descriptions of what they felt, ask them questions, compare their response to other claiming similar experiences. If they claim there was some some physical manifestations, that too is investigated.

If something can't be investigated by science, that just means we have only isolated, non-repeatable, non-predictable, very individual accounts, with no available physical eveidence, making it impossible for anyone to do any more than speculate about what may be the ultimate explanation.

When we take into account the massive evidence that the ability of the human mind to come to believe in the absolute reality of virtually anything, no matter how bizarre or demonstrably incorrect, simple errors of reasoning or mis-perception, etc, are always going to an explanation that cannot be dismissed.

Since our basic 'hardware' (our brains and bodies) and 'software' (shared cultures and experiences) have more in common that they do differences across large groups of people, we will also expect to see many people reporting similar non-physical experiences, so the frequent argument that there must be something real because so many people report the same thing, only demonstrates what I just said - we share very similar basic mental mechanisms and sensory imperfections...

Favorite oxymorons: Gospel Truth, Rational Supernaturalist, Business Ethics, Christian Morality

"Theology is now little more than a branch of human ignorance. Indeed, it is ignorance with wings." - Sam Harris

The path to Truth lies via careful study of reality, not the dreams of our fallible minds - me

From the sublime to the ridiculous: Science -> Philosophy -> Theology